Milwaukee Brewers: Zach Davies Will Thrive in 2017

While he may not look like your typical MLB starting pitcher, the Milwaukee Brewers’ Zach Davies has the tools to enjoy consistent success.

Standing exactly six feet tall at less than 160 pounds, Milwaukee Brewers‘ hurler Zach Davies won’t intimidate you on the diamond.

He might even remind some guys of their annoying younger brother, begging for a chance to play and then shutting down the older kids. A 3.97 ERA last year doesn’t scream top-of-the-rotation arm, but it was Davies first full season.

There’s plenty of room for growth – not physically, necessarily – but that’s not an issue.

Davies’ appearance might actually play well into his strategy on the hill. With a fastball that averaged 89.3 MPH, a hitter’s natural tendencies amps him up to try crushing each sub-90 pitch. That’s fine by Davies.

More from Milwaukee Brewers

Despite lacking the eye-popping heater we expect from quality starting pitchers, Davies utilizes his own skill set to perfection. Namely, a sometimes-filthy changeup with consistent, upper-echelon command of all his pitches.

For good measure, he will flip up a curve and chuck a slider/cut fastball to keep guys guessing.

The best hitters rely on pitch recognition, timing and “barrelling up” the baseball. Davies thrives on making each of those a challenge on every single pitch.

This is why Milwaukee Brewers’ fans can feel comfortable trusting Davies to hold a steady line of success in 2017 and beyond.

Let’s start with the idea of command (not control). Control would simply be the ability to throw strikes. That’s obviously important, and a majority of MLB pitchers can do it, but there are good strikes and bad strikes.

Command focuses on the ability to make pitches where you want, when you want, and with almost any type of pitch you throw. Davies has been great in this regard – on his way to masterful if he continues to progress.

One indicator of Davies’ strength in throwing quality strikes likes in his strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB). Davies ranked 13th among NL starters with a 3.55 K/BB, better than both Jake Arrieta and Adam Wainwright.

With a fastball rarely registering above 90, one would expect fewer punch out and more nibbling, causing an increase in walks. Davies’ movement, change of speeds and finely-tuned location makes up for the lower velocity.

In fact, one statistic put out by Baseball Prospectus (BP) loves Davies’ command. The stat – Called Strikes Above Average (CSAA) – looks to measure how many called strikes a pitcher creates for his team.

Last season, Davies had the highest CSAA in MLB, posting a 3.5% CSAA. That means that Davies gets called strikes 3.5% more often than an average pitcher does. According to this BP article, “For Davies, it converts a seemingly fringe prospect into a three-win pitcher.”

No doubt the Milwaukee Brewers are ecstatic with this progress from the kid they got in exchange for Gerardo Parra at the trade deadline in 2015.

Davies’ strides can make the Brewers’ rebuild move a little quicker. Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports /

So, aside from the world-class command, the changeup really is the key to his sustainable success.

Since his delivery is simple, quiet and extremely repeatable, Davies’ changeup looks exactly like his fastball out of his hand.

When the ball travels 12-15 MPH slower – while diving down and away (from a lefty) – whiffs and weak contact come in bunches.

Poorly hit balls, induced by avoiding the barrels of the league’s hitters, are created with the way Davies mixes up his velocity and action on his pitches, while spotting them in the ideal parts of the hitting zone – or outside of it.

Davies ranked 11th in softly-hit balls in play (soft%), with one-fifth of his batted balls (19.7%) considered weak contact. Though his changeup gets many hitters to connect on the end of the bat, Davies also runs his fastball in on righties thanks to some terrific run in on their hands.

The comparison some people are making is to that of Chicago Cubs’ starter, Kyle Hendricks, who won the NL ERA title at 2.13 last year. It makes sense, as Hendricks uses a devastating changeup, movement and spot-on location to dominate hitters.

Hendricks led NL starters in soft hit percentage last season (24.9%) and was 10th in K/BB ratio (3.93), despite an average fastball of 89.7 MPH in 2016. That’s just 0.3 MPH faster than Davies.

Hendricks’ overall greater success may simply lie in two factors: experience and team defense.

More from Dairyland Express

Coming into 2016, Hendricks owned 260.1 MLB innings pitched. Davies entered last season with just 34 frames under his belt. Now Davies enters the new campaign with 197.1 innings at this level. That is an obvious boost, mentally and physically.

Davies also is just 24 years old, a full two years younger than Hendricks was last year.

Plus, the Cubs’ defense was in the ballpark of the best in MLB history in 2016. This can be seen, in part, by their starting pitchers’ batting average of balls in play (BABIP).

Among NL starters, four Cubs were in the top 6 spots in lowest BABIP. That includes Arrieta with the lowest (.241) and Hendricks with the 3rd-lowest (.252). Davies’ BABIP in 2016 was .302, which was 21st in the league.

Considering all those factors – coupled with Davies’ already-strong performances – the Milwaukee Brewers appear to be sitting on a gem. Many will still doubt the 26th-round draft pick, but he will silence his detractors even further in 2017.

Next: Two Bucks Can Propel Them to the Playoffs

With some minor adjustments, continued development, and the chance to pitch every five days, Davies’ ceiling will continue to rise in 2017. The Milwaukee Brewers will be able to rely on Davies as a solid starter for years to come.

Home/Milwaukee Brewers