Milwaukee Brewers Preview: 5 Fearless Predictions for 2017

The 2017 season will be another year of development for the Milwaukee Brewers rebuilding project. Even if they struggle to put wins together, there will be positive trends individually and as a group.

If you read my prediction for the Milwaukee Brewers record in 2017, you know there are plenty of positives to focus on. Most of the excitement is being created by the offense; however some of the pitching will step up this year.

As you read the following prognostications, keep in mind they are meant to be a bit of a stretch. Feel free to laugh, criticize or nod in agreement as you scroll through the list.

1 – Milwaukee Brewers Finish Top 10 in Runs Scored in MLB

Last year the Brewers finished 25th in runs scored (4.14 per game). Part of the problem was their .238 batting average with runners in scoring position – 27th in MLB. That is something that often fluctuates year-to-year, so you can expect a boost in that department.

On top of that, Milwaukee scored the 12th-most runs during the second half of 2016. This coincided with the improvement of Keon Broxton and the health of Domingo Santana. Newcomers Eric Thames and Travis Shaw will deliver extra power and take advantage of Miller Park’s favorable right field.

Tack on the consistent numbers for Ryan Braun and the Brewers ability to steal bases, and they’ll be in a position to score more frequently this year. To reach the upper third in 2017, Milwaukee will need to score about 4.6 times per contest.

2 – Zach Davies Cracks MLB Top 20 in ERA-

ERA- is a statistic used by Fangraphs to measure pitchers against each other while trying to eliminate factors like different ball parks or leagues. An ERA- of 100 is average, while anything below that number means a pitcher is better than the league average.

Qualified pitchers needed a 78 ERA- to reach the top 20 last season. Chris Sale was the 20th-ranked hurler in 2016, so that gives you an idea of the production this entail. Last year, Davies finished with a 92 ERA-. One key to his success is in avoiding walks. Davies ranked 14th in baseball last year in walks-per-9-innings (BB/9), while still maintaining a solid strikeout rate (7.44 per 9 innings).

His improvement in ERA- will come in limiting the home run ball (1.10 HR per 9 innings) and getting more ground balls. By increasing his ground ball percentage from 45.5% in 2016 to around 48% in 2017, Davies can sneak into the top 20 of this category.

3 – Six Hitters Will Have an OPS of .800 or Better

The more guys you can start with an .800 OPS, the more dangerous your lineup will be. It’s relatively rare to see 75% of your lineup (I’m not counting the pitcher’s spot) boasting this number in the NL. This 2017 group has a realistic shot at it.

If you count Jonathan Lucroy, the Brewers had 4 players at .800 or better in 2016. Here are the six hitters in line to reach an OPS of .800, listed with their 2016 OPS:

Eric Thames (1.112 in Korea; Often compared to Double-A talent)
Ryan Braun (.903)
Jonathan Villar (.826)
Domingo Santana (.792)
Keon Broxton (.784)
Travis Shaw (.726)

Thames is a question mark because of his jump back to the United States. Shaw looks like the steepest climb, but having Miller Park as his home is a big advantage over Fenway Park for a left-handed hitter. Keep an eye on how these six progress as the year goes on.

4 – Corey Knebel is a Top 10 MLB Reliever Based on WAR

Neftali Feliz was brought in to likely be the closer this year, but that doesn’t mean he’s the Brewers’ best relief pitcher. Tyler Thornburg was the best man out of the bullpen in 2016, and he didn’t close until later in the season. Thornburg’s 2.0 WAR ranked him 11th among MLB relievers.

Knebel has the stuff to dominate hitters on a consistent basis as well. He throws comfortably in the 94-96 MPH range with an above-average curve. Most of his struggles last year stemmed from issues with walks (4.44 BB/9). However, his strikeout rate stayed high (10.5 K/9) and he did a great job of keeping the ball in the park in 2016.

To sneak into that top 10 range, Knebel will need to push toward a 2.2 WAR, which is in the neighborhood just below the best closers. If Spring Training was any indication, he is ready to go. In 9.1 innings, Knebel had 15 strikeouts and just 1 walk with a 0.96 WHIP and a .229 opponents’ average.

5 – Milwaukee Brewers Win the Season Series Over the Cardinals

If it feels like the Brewers never beat the St. Louis Cardinals consistently, it’s because that is true. Milwaukee hasn’t taken the season series over St. Louis since 2010 and have gone 39-70 against the Cardinals since then.

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Milwaukee won only 6 of 19 matchups in both 2015 and 2016. So what would change in 2017? For one, the Brewers have a more dynamic offense that can beat the Cardinals in a number of different ways – unlike past years.

The Cardinals are also primed for a dip this season. Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina are getting older and the supporting cast doesn’t look like the usual top-tier club.

These rivals play 19 times in 2017 – for the Brewers to win 10 of them would be a fantastic step in the right direction.

Next: 2017 Brewers: Projecting Offensive History

There you have it! A handful of bold predictions that are likely necessary for the team to push its way to the .500 mark. As always, no matter what record the Milwaukee Brewers finish with in 2017, there will be plenty to watch and enjoy.

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