Milwaukee Brewers 2017 Prediction: Their Record Will Surprise MLB

Some will call this a homer prediction. Others will claim stupidity or insanity. They might turn out to be right, but the Milwaukee Brewers are already sneaky good and ahead of the rebuilding curve.

There have been some experts pontificating about the Milwaukee Brewers being an exciting group and an impressive team to watch. Still, no one seems to believe they’ll win a fair amount of games. That scared nonsense stops here.

The Milwaukee Brewers’ win total in 2017 will begin with the number 8. Yes, eight will be that initial number in the ‘W’ column. You heard it here first – at least, officially. There are some reasons to believe in the idea that the Brewers can flirt with a .500 record this year.

Milwaukee does boast an intriguing mix of skilled players at the dish, on the hill, and in the field. They have some tremendous athletes with speed, size, strength, and versatility that rivals any club.

Especially when it comes to the position players, remarks are consistently being made about the team’s physical appearance. They have the look of the men you see at the NFL combine instead of the diamond. Whether or not that translates into actual baseball success will be fascinating.

Some guys are more under-the-radar talents that rely on a particular set of strengths. For example, pitchers like Junior Guerra and Zach Davies won’t “wow” anyone at first glance, but they know how to maximize their ability: Guerra with the devastating split-finger and Davies with his command-movement combo.

Even last season, the Brewers surprised many with 73 wins while playing mostly competitive ball. USA Today predicted 64 wins in 2016, while Bovada set the over-under betting mark at 69.5 victories.

In fact, the Brewers were 3rd in ERA (3.62) in the second half, behind the Chicago Cubs and the Red Sox.

And while it is a small sample to use, Milwaukee also finished 2016 by going 17-13. Those were contests without guys like Jonathan Lucroy, Will Smith, and Jeremy Jeffress. Most of the players involved in those 17 wins are the same ones who will play significant roles this season.

Now in 2017, GM David Stearns added to the MLB roster without sacrificing much elsewhere. There are certainly some big question marks – most notably, first baseman Eric Thames. While he tore up the Korean league with impressive power, no one is sure how that will convert to the US game.

If Thames (30 years old) can produce even 75% of his three seasons overseas, Stearns will have earned genius status. At three-quarters of Thames’ Korean rates, he would hit 31 home runs with a .343 OBP and .541 slugging percentage to post an .884 OPS in 2017. That would play well.

Travis Shaw was another left-handed bat brought in by Stearns – this one via trade. Shaw came over from the Boston Red Sox where Fenway Park punishes lefty-swinging hitters. The move to Miller Park will certainly add power to Shaw’s game, as Milwaukee is one of the best stadiums to hit in for lefties.

Both Shaw and Thames are keys to improving this club’s offense as the Brewers ranked 25th in OPS (.706) last season when it came to left-handed batters facing right-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, with Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, Domingo Santana, and switch-hitter Jonathan Villar, Milwaukee had the 5th-best OPS (.795) for right-handed batters versus southpaws.

The added power from the left side, coupled with the development of guys like Broxton, Villar, and Santana, will certainly improve the Brewers’ run production. They ranked 25th in runs scored (4.14 per game) in 2016, so there’s plenty of room to go up – and they have the top offense so far this spring.

Even if their bats don’t carry the offense, the Brewers use aggressive base running to add runs to the board. Led by Villar’s league-leading 62 stolen bases, Milwaukee bested MLB with 181 thefts. That was 42 more than the Cincinnati Reds who finished 2nd.

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In the age of analytics, stolen bases have been devalued quite a bit. However, it’s possible the Brewers are taking advantage of that perception and using it to their advantage. The club possesses a lot of speed, so they might as well tap into that quality.

Utility man Hernan Perez was 34-for-41 on stolen base attempts while Broxton was 23-for-27. Braun added 16 steals last year, and a full season of Orlando Arcia should see the team number rise once more. Arcia was perfect on eight steal attempts last season.

Their efficiency in swiping bases was terrific, but they do need to improve in other base running situations. Another year of experience for this group should help them learn how and when to be aggressive to maximize the output. Expect a jump in that area in 2017.

On the other side of the ledger, Milwaukee’s pitching staff may have more question marks. This despite having the NL’s 6th-best ERA+ (105) and 7th-best ERA (4.08) last year. In fact, the Brewers were 3rd in ERA (3.62) in the second half, behind the Chicago Cubs and the Red Sox.

What the rotation may lack in a bona fide ace of staff, it makes up for in quality depth. Guerra (named the Opening Day starter) and Davies are a level above the rest of the group. However, Jimmy Nelson, Wily Peralta, Matt Garza and Chase Anderson bring competency with some upside.

Last season, Brewers owned the NL’s 4th-best ERA (3.97) in the second half among starting pitchers – 7th in all of MLB.

That group will create a challenging decision for manager Craig Counsell and his staff. They could send two of the latter four out to the bullpen to further strengthen the relief corp. They could also consider sending one of them down to triple-A to start there (Anderson or Nelson).

Either way, the club has a wealth of arms to work into the rotation and bullpen. Led by closer Neftali Feliz and set-up man Carlos Torres, Milwaukee boasts plenty of talented relievers.

Tommy Milone, Corey Knebel, Jacob Barnes and Jhan Marinez are just a few to mention. Only Barnes has minor league options available, so he could be the odd man out. Regardless, the bullpen has unlimited potential.

Some the men coming back to the team were a part of the bullpen last season, which had the best bullpen ERA in baseball in the 2nd half (3.07).

Excited yet?

Most of the so-called experts are still not impressed. Only the Pecota projections see the Milwaukee Brewers improving upon their 73 wins last season, giving them 78.

USA Today puts Milwaukee at 72-90. Fangraphs sees the Crew dropping to 70 wins in 2017. Bovada puts the Brewers over-under for wins at 69.5 for a second straight season.

Many times, it seems like if there’s a consensus on a team, it’s an accurate assessment. The truth is, there are always a few teams that blow past prognostications by the time the year closes. For example, the Baltimore Orioles finished with 89 victories in 2016. All the major predictions had them between 72 and 79 wins – making even the closest mark a full ten wins off.

The AL champion was another club that was highly undervalued by many during the spring. Most put the Cleveland Indians between 83 and 86 victories. They won 94 times, finishing one victory shy of a World Series title. There were a handful of other teams that surprised as well.

So why can’t the Milwaukee Brewers be that team in 2017? It’s fair to argue their everyday talent, bench players and pitching staff have all improved – at least slightly. Throw in the belief that some players will naturally progress, and it ups the club’s ceiling even more.

Add a little bit of luck with a few more close games swinging their way (23-28 in one-run games last season), and suddenly that 80+ mark feels more attainable. With all that in mind – and at the risk of people thinking this is a dumb prediction – here it is:

The Milwaukee Brewers will finish the 2017 season with an 82-80 record. If we’re going to put them at 80, it might as well be 82. With the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates not looking quite as strong as in recent seasons (plus the lowly Reds), this is more than reachable (really!).

Next: Brewers Own Best MLB Offense This Spring

This won’t get the Milwaukee Brewers into a Wild Card discussion, but it would create some buzz and raise the hopes of many that this rebuild is in good hands. The 82 wins could push Milwaukee into 3rd place in the division, too. Whether or not that matters to fans, it would be another sign that the Brewers will soon be competitive in the tough NL Central.

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