Although the Milwaukee Brewers have all the reason in the world to be confident in their abilities this postseason, coming off a historic regular season in which they were the only team to top 100 wins, their NLDS matchup with the San Diego Padres poses some risk. This is a team that gave Milwaukee trouble in the regular season, and one of the few that can match them in the bullpen.
But that doesn't mean San Diego enters this series with the upper hand, as it'll be a tactical battle between two skilled, deep teams with strong coaching staffs and a real organizational philosophy behind them. In turn, this means every little detail will matter in the grand scheme of the series, so both sides need to be prepared for every situation that will come their way.
Executing on the margins is the only way for either of these teams to get ahead, and these three factors are going to play significant roles in deciding who advances to compete for a trip to the World Series.
1. The Brewers' & Padres' battle in the bullpen could decide the NLDS.
These are far and away two of the toughest bullpens in baseball, with elite starters and high-leverage relievers ready for the challenge ahead. Milwaukee is expected to start Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson in the first two games, but where they go from there is undecided. I'd expect a heavy dose of Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, and Trevor Megill, particularly from Game 3 on.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee has to face lefty Robbie Ray and San Diego's ace, Michael King, in the first two games, with dominant closer Mason Miller assuming a pivotal role. It's going to be a wild ride watching these two elite bullpens duke it out for three to five games.
2. Road dogs will decide the NLDS following Brewers' woes in San Diego and the Padres' struggles in away games.
Petco Park has not been kind to the Brewers, who are 10-10 in San Diego since 2020 and were swept in their lone visit earlier this season. That series was a turning point at a critical juncture in Milwaukee's season and served as a wake-up call for many of the team's most important offensive players. If they can overcome that and take care of business in San Diego, even just one time, it'll have a serious impact on the outcome of the series.
The same could be said for the Padres, who went 1-for-3 in Milwaukee this season and are also 10-10 at American Family Field since 2020, adding fuel to the fire for a team that has won one more road game than it lost in Milwaukee this season and is 10-10 at American Family Field since 2020, adding fuel to the fire for a team that lost one more road game than it won on the season.
3. An NLDS test of willpower awaits as Milwaukee matches San Diego's elite power with an A+ defense.
It feels like we're witnessing the result of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. The Padres are one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning all but three of their final 20 regular season games before taking care of business against the Cubs in the Wild Card round. Much of that success was fueled by the Padres' elite offense, tying for the most runs scored in the last month of games.
The team that tied them, however, was the Brewers, who also brought top-tier defense and fielding to the table, robbing homers and tagging runners at an elite rate throughout the 2026 campaign.
If San Diego is able to overcome that defense and score at the same rate they have been during this stretch, it'll be difficult for the Brewers to win the series. But if Milwaukee can slow down the hottest team in baseball, it'll not only secure their NLDS, but also set the tone for every game to come in the rest of their playoff run.
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