Final Thoughts on Green Bay Packers Heading into Playoffs

The NFL playoffs are finally here, but before we turn our attention to the Green Bay Packers and their matchup with San Francisco in the NFC Divisional Round, just as I do before every game, I wanted to share my final thoughts on this team heading into the playoffs.

Final Thoughts on Green Bay Packers Heading into Playoffs

– Everything seems to be coming together for the Green Bay Packers, at least from a player health standpoint. David Bakhtiari, Josh Myers, Jaire Alexander, Za’Darius Smith, Whitney Mercilus, Randall Cobb, and Billy Turner could all be available for the playoffs.

– With this many key absences this season, Green Bay was still able to finish the year as well as they did in part because of the play of the role and backup players who stepped up. And with that, there will be some “tough decisions” to make, as Matt LaFleur put it, as the Packers try to work these players back in.

– The first decision is the offensive line configuration. My best guess is that it’s the same starting five we saw against Detroit that take the field in the playoffs–plus Turner, if he is healthy. So that group would be Bakhtiari, Runyan, Myers, Patrick, and Turner/Kelly. You can read more here on how I came to that conclusion, along with what specific decisions LaFleur and Co. have to make.

– Led by Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, and Kenny Clark, the Packers have been very good at pressuring the quarterback this season. However, even so, the edge rusher depth was a concern. When Green Bay has had to rely on Tipa Galeai or Jonathan Garvin, the pass-rush has suffered, not to mention that each player has struggled against the run. But with the potential return of Mercilus and Z. Smith, that weakness may now be a strength. My guess is that P. Smith and Gary still take a majority of the snaps, and we see Z. Smith and Mercilus worked in for 20 to 30 snaps a game. And, of course, we will see plenty of snaps with the Smiths and Gary on the field together.

– Rasul Douglas and Eric Stokes have held up very well without Jaire Alexander. So when Alexander returns, what do the Green Bay Packers do? Again, they have options. My guess is that whether Alexander plays in the slot or on the boundary will be game and matchup-specific. If they face Cooper Kupp and Los Angeles, we may see more of him in the slot. Whereas, against Dallas, for example, he would have been on the boundary more and do more traveling during the game. Either way, this is a good problem to have.

– I also wouldn’t be terribly concerned about Alexander playing in the slot with his shoulder. Yes, the slot corner does have to help more against the run, but it’s not as if it’s every play, or even close to that. Alexander will still primarily be in coverage.

– Without Randall Cobb and Robert Tonyan, Allen Lazard has really stepped up for the Green Bay Packers. Over the last five games, he has caught 21 of his 28 targets for 290 yards — or 13.8 yards per catch — along with five touchdowns. He’s been very reliable on third downs, as well as in the red zone, and been asked to fill Tonyan’s role at times in the passing game.

– My playoff X-Factors for the Green Bay Packers: Dean Lowry, Mason Crosby, Josiah Deguara, Darnell Savage, and Josh Myers.

– Yes, the defense has struggled as of late, but two reasons to be optimistic are that for much of the season, even through the ups and downs, Green Bay has been very good at pressuring the quarterback and creating turnovers. When a defense does those two things well and does them consistently, more often than not, things will turn out alright.

– With that said, there are certainly areas to improve upon, but as I wrote recently, the biggest boost that this defense can receive is actually from the Green Bay Packers offense by getting out to fast starts, controlling the clock, and putting games away in the second half.

– Aaron Rodgers is entering the playoffs on absolute fire. Over Green Bay’s last seven games, he has completed 72 percent of his targets with 20 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 124.4 passer rating.

– The Green Bay Packers had home-field advantage last season, but two big differences this time around are that Lambeau Field will be at full capacity, and it looks like it is going to be very cold–and I mean very cold.

– This offense is at their best when Rodgers is getting the ball out on time and fairly quickly. For most of the season, and at times out of necessity with all of the offensive line injuries, Rodgers was very good at that. Let’s hope that continues to be the case even with the offensive line at nearly full strength.

– You can read more here, but my four concerns for Green Bay entering the playoffs are the slow starts on offense this year, Green Bay’s red zone woes on both sides of the ball, the special teams unit, and the recent play of the defense.

– In the playoffs, every weakness and error is magnified with the intensity kicked up a few notches.

– David Moore should absolutely be the return man during these playoffs. Also, knock on wood, the special teams unit has been better as of late–not great, by any means, but better.

– Let’s hope that Marquez Valdes-Scantling will be able to play. He left the Detroit game with a back injury. For starters, there is no one else on this team that can take the top off of defense quite like he can, but that speed of his also helps create for others, and we’ve also seen his game expand, with success from the slot and on intermediate routes–particularly over the middle.

– I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that the Green Bay Packers’ offense began to turn a corner in Week 11, which was about the same time that we started to see consistent production from the tight end position. Although the Packers have plenty of pass-catching options on offense, it’s going to be important that Josiah Deguara, Marcedes Lewis, and Tyler Davis are factors in the passing game.

– Lastly, don’t forget to get Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon going in the run game.