NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5


The Green Bay Packers have played two games since my picks column last week, and good lord do they look less pathetic. Writing about their performances have gotten much less depressing! And speaking of depressing, let’s revisit my picks from last week:

Best Calls

Predicted: Green Bay Packers (-0.5) over Chicago Bears, Packers 31 Bears 24

Actual: Packers 38, Bears 17

I was a touchdown away from both teams’ actual scores, and as I wrote in my rapid reaction article to this game, the score was not indicative of how close this game truly was.

More from Green Bay Packers


Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) over Tennessee Titans, Colts 34 Titans 17

Actual: Colts 41, Titans 17

Pretty easy call, considering Charlie Whitehurst started at quarterback for the Titans. Easy win for the far better Colts

Predicted: San Diego Chargers (-13.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars, Chargers 28 Jaguars 10

Actual: Chargers 33, Jaguars 14

Again, just a way better team beating up on a terrible one. Looks for  the Jaguars to get at least 10 points against most opponents until they show any signs of competence.

Worst Calls

Predicted: Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) over Minnesota Vikings, Falcons 41 Vikings 21

Actual: Vikings 41, Falcons 28

Wow, Teddy Bridgewater is pretty darn good. Packer fans are fortunate he wasn’t able to go on Thursday night

Predicted: New England Patriots (-3.5) over Kansas City Chiefs, Patriots 34 Chiefs 17

Actual: Chiefs 41, Patriots 14

I’m done with the Patriots. They just don’t have any playmakers on offense, and they got smacked by a mediocre Chiefs team.

Predicted: Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Steelers 30 Buccaneers 14

Actual: Buccaneers 27 Steelers 24

The Buccaneers are the most annoying team to try and predict. Glennon is just competent enough to lift the Bucs over the Steelers here, and it makes me tempted to take the Bucs at +11 over the Saints this week.

Last Week: 6-6

Dec 16, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) shakes hands with Atlanta Falcons outside linebacker Sean Weatherspoon (56) after the game at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons won 34-0. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

Noon Games

Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) over New York Giants: I don’t feel at all confident about this game, as I’ve been wrong on the Giants each week other than the first two. I’m taking the Falcons to cover but I believe the Giants will pull out the win. Falcons 27 Giants 24

Aug 28, 2014; Orchard Park, NY, USA; The Buffalo Bills offense lines up against the Detroit Lions defense during the second half at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Lions beat the Bills 23-0. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Detroit Lions (-7.5) over Buffalo Bills: I wholeheartedly believe the Bills made the right decision to bench E.J. Manuel in favor or Kyle Orton. The Lions defense is still strong, however, and I believe they beat the Bills handily. Lions 31 Bills 21

Aug 9, 2013; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Tauren Poole (33) runs through the line as he is pursued by Chicago Bears linebacker Lawrence Wilson (49) and defensive tackle Christian Tupou (64) while playing at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina wins 24-17. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports

Chicago Bears (+2.5) over Carolina Panthers: I’d be very curious to hear an explanation on this line. Does Vegas believe the Panthers defense is still good enough to keep them in games? Their offense is so sluggish, ranking 25th in terms of total yards per game. It scares me that the Panthers have been blown out twice in a row, and are going to start the game with a chip on their shoulder but I’m taking the Bears. Bears 28 Panthers 21

Sep 28, 2014; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Charlie Whitehurst (12) passes the ball during the third quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts defeated the Titans 41-17. Mandatory Credit: Pat Lovell-USA TODAY Sports

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) over Tennessee Titans: This game is all about Charlie Whitehurst. 12 of 23 and an interception against the Colts last Sunday, and he just looked terrible. I think the Browns defense will force four turnovers and beat the Titans in a low scoring game. Browns 17 Titans 10

Aug 29, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys receiver Cole Beasley (11) during the second half against the Houston Texans at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) over Houston Texans: DeMarco Murray has 156 more rushing yards than the player with the second most yards in the league. The Cowboys offensive line has played terrific thus far and I believe the Cowboys continue to ground and pound over the Texans. Cowboys 34 Texans 17

Jan 6, 2013; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Anquan Boldin (81) makes a 46 yard catch in front of Indianapolis Colts cornerback Cassius Vaughn (32) to set up a third quarter touchdown during the AFC Wild Card playoff game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) over Baltimore Ravens: This is a good test for the Colts. Their two losses have come against superb teams, and their two wins have come against horrendous teams. If the Colts are going to advance in the playoffs, they need to be able to take care of teams like the Ravens and I believe they do just that. Colts 34 Ravens 24

Sep 28, 2014; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles (9) leaves the field after the game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) over St. Louis Rams: The Eagles are going to come out hungry against the Rams, after getting clipped by the 49ers last Sunday. LeSean McCoy has really underperformed for two straight two weeks, and I believe he go off against the 30th ranked Rams rush defense. Eagles 41 Rams 14

Dec 29, 2013; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) passes the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. New Orleans defeated Tampa Bay 42-17. Mandatory Credit: Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10.5) over New Orleans Saints: I think I’ve finally accepted that the Saints just aren’t good. They struggled against the Vikings, lost to the Browns, and got blown out by the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. I don’t think the Bucs win, but this is too juicy of a spread to pass up. Saints 24 Buccaneers 20

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars: As I said earlier, I can’t pick the Jaguars until I see some semblance of offensive proficiency. The Steelers are not a great team right now, but they are certainly hungry after a last second loss to the Buccaneers last week. Steelers 30 Jaguars 14

Aug 29, 2013; Denver, CO, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Ryan Lindley (14) prepares to take a snap during the preseason game against the Arizona Cardinals at Sports Authority Field. The Cardinals defeated the Broncos 32-24. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Afternoon Games

Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) over Denver Broncos: Similar to the Colts game, this is a big test for the Cardinals. If they can beat the Broncos, they are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The question for Bruce Arians is going to be when Carson Palmer is healthy again, will they bench Drew Stanton? This game will determine a whole lot for the Cardinals and I am a believer to an extent. That extent ends when they play top three teams. Denver wins, but Arizona plays them tough and covers. Broncos 27 Cardinals 24

Sep 28, 2014; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) rushes for a first down during the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Levi

San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) over Kansas City Chiefs: This is a really difficult game to pick, and a stay-away game for me. I believe in the Niners, but it’s tough to give the Chiefs 7.5 points after their Monday night throttling of the New England Patriots. Ultimately, I trust Harbaugh and this Niners team over one great game that the Chiefs had. 49ers 30 Chiefs 19

Sep 28, 2014; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith (7) carries the ball against the Detroit Lions during the second half at MetLife Stadium. The Lions won 24-17. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

San Diego Chargers (-7.5) over New York Jets: I continue to believe Philip Rivers massively improved last year, and that it’s all coming together this year with his team. The Jets have to be gassed after playing three tough NFC North teams that resulted in three Jets’ losses. Chargers win big. Chargers 27 Jets 14

Oct 6, 2013; Cincinnati, OH, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) passes the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati defeated New England 13-6. Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) over New England Patriots: This is a trap game if there ever was one. The Bengals are widely regarded as a top three team in the NFL while the Patriots just got their butts handed to them by the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night. Either Vegas is giving too much credit for past success to the Pats, or they know something betters don’t. Bengals 24 Patriots 10

Jan 6, 2013; Landover, MD, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) lines up during the second half of the NFC Wild Card playoff game against the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field. The Seahawks won 24-14. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

Monday Night Football

Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) over Washington Redskins: I’ve heard people talking about potential upset in this game. Don’t get too cute, the Seahawks will not lose to Kirk Cousins. Don’t get me wrong, I like Cousins, he puts up good stats but he just turns the ball over far too often. The Legion of Boom is going to eat him up. Seahawks 35 Redskins 17

Thanks for reading, and relax this weekend Packer fans! The victory lasts until next Sunday when the Green Bay Packers face off against the Miami Dolphins.