Re-sign or Let Go and Prediction: Packers S Adrian Amos
By Paul Bretl
This is the final article in my 2023 “Re-sign or Let go & Prediction” series, where I take a look at each of the Packers’ unrestricted free agents, and examine why Green Bay may try to re-sign them, why they would let them walk, and then I’ll make a prediction.
Last but certainly not least is safety Adrian Amos. If you’ve missed any of the other articles in this series, you can find them all below.
Why the Packers would re-sign Adrian Amos
To put it simply, reliability. Now, I know Amos is coming off what many consider a down season by his standards, but during his first three seasons in Green Bay, he had been one of the most steady safeties in football.
Amos doesn’t make the flashy plays, but he’s almost always available, having played over 1,100 snaps in four straight seasons, along with 977 in 2022, per PFF. He’s a well-rounded player, holding his own in coverage and limiting big plays, as well as being a willing tackler in the run game–an important aspect of playing safety in Joe Barry’s defense that uses light boxes heavily.
Without Amos, however, the Packers very much lose that reliability. As it’s currently constructed, Darnell Savage, who was benched, is the only player on the roster with any substantial NFL experience. The other safeties include Tariq Carpenter, James Wiggins, and Vernon Scott. This is arguably the biggest need that the Packers have to address this offseason.
On top of all of that, the safety position in this year’s draft class is lacking high-end talent. Amos also isn’t expected to break the bank in free agency, either. PFF is projecting that his next contract will earn him $5.5 million per season, an amount that even the Packers can make work with their salary cap situation.
Why the Packers won’t re-sign Adrian Amos
Although free agency hasn’t begun yet, I believe we got the answer to this question back on February 20th. That was the deadline for NFL team’s to extend players who had voided contracts.
In an effort to create cap space during previous offseasons, the Packers added void years to Amos’ contract so that they could push cap charges into additional years that went beyond the actual life of the contract, thus allowing them to lower the cap hit in that current season.
However, when the contract is set to expire, which for Amos is this offseason making him a free agent, those cap hits pushed into the voided years come due. So by not reaching an extension prior to February 20th, Amos leaves behind a dead cap hit of $7.95 million. This is money that will count against the Packers’ 2023 salary cap, even if he is playing elsewhere.
So what does that have to do with re-signing Amos?
Well, had Green Bay and Amos been able to come to an agreement on an extension — which would have stopped the cap charges from the voided years from coming due for the time being because of their being new years on the contract to push those dollars to — at the right price, the Packers could have kept him in Green Bay at an equal or an even lower cap hit than what it is going to cost them to have Amos playing with a new team.
Now, who knows the exact reasoning on why a new deal wasn’t reached. Maybe Amos thought he could get more on the open market than what Green Bay was offering. But trying to sign Amos to an extension is absolutely something the Packers should have been trying for. Would you rather have an $8 million cap hit and have Amos on your team, or have an $8 million cap hit with him in a different uniform?
To put a bow on all of this, that was a long-winded way of saying that if the Packers couldn’t get a new deal done with Amos, even with the potential financial and on-the-field benefits that came with doing so, regardless of what the reasons may be, I don’t see it then happening in free agency.
Prediction: the Packers don’t re-sign Adrian Amos
Given the state of the safety room, Amos’ overall play as a Packer, his projected contract, and what the draft is looking like at this position, bringing him back makes a lot of sense. However, for the reason just explained, I don’t think it’s in the cards.