Re-sign or Let Go and Prediction: Packers IDL Dean Lowry
By Paul Bretl
The Green Bay Packers have 14 of their own unrestricted free agents to make decisions on either before or during NFL free agency.
Over the next few weeks, my “Re-sign or Let go & Prediction” series is back, where I will be taking a look at each of the Packers’ unrestricted free agents, and examining why Green Bay may try to re-sign them, why they would let them walk, and then I’ll make a prediction.
Up next is interior defensive lineman Dean Lowry. If you’ve missed any of the other articles in this series, you can find them all below.
Why the Packers would re-sign Dean Lowry
Perhaps Brian Gutekunst looks at the interior defensive line position and sees Kenny Clark with two up-and-coming young defenders in Devonte Wyatt and TJ Slaton and feels that this group is in good shape. Or maybe, he sees a unit that mostly underperformed last season and will be relying heavily on Slaton, a primary run defender, and Wyatt, who has little experience.
I tend to think that the latter is the more accurate depiction of this position group, and that adding a veteran to shoulder some snaps would be valuable. Now, when it comes to Lowry, he’s drawn the ire of many fans, but one could also argue that he’s oftentimes been utilized in a role too large for him, and I’m not sure he was as bad as many believe. Lowry will never be flashy, but coming off the bench to do the dirty work, including taking on double-teams and occupying space to create for others, while playing 30-40% of the defensive snaps rather than 65%, could lead to a more consistent impact. This would be the hope anyways in re-signing him.
The interior defensive line position is a heavily rotated one, and the Packers need more than just Clark, Wyatt, and Slaton. Now, in a reduced role as the fourth option, Lowry would have to come with an average annual salary lower than the $6.8 million he was earning on his previous deal. Because of a previous contract restructure that utilized voided years, even if Lowry is playing elsewhere in 2023, he leaves behind a $3 million dead cap hit. If the Packers were to extend him prior to February 20th, when his previous deal voids, they could potentially keep him around at a cap hit not much different than the dead cap hit being left behind regardless.
Why the Packers won’t re-sign Dean Lowry
As already mentioned, the Packers need more from their interior defensive line position. During the final five games of the regular season, when the defense was playing its best football, a big reason why was because of the play of the interior defensive line, which was getting a more consistent push and holding up better against the run. A portion of this stretch also happened with Lowry on IR, showing that he can be replaced.
After a solid 2022 season, where Lowry produced 42 pressures and five sacks, he had just 17 pressures and one sack this past year, according to PFF. Against the run, where Lowry took the majority of his snaps, he ranked 96th in run-stop rate. As I mentioned above, he will never be a flashy player, but he also has a tendency to disappear at times as well. As a key member of the Packers’ interior defensive line unit in recent years, this group outside of Clark has mostly underwhelmed.
Adding to this position group through the draft or bringing in a veteran on a minimum deal, similarly to what the Packers did last season with Jarran Reed, who earned $1.8 million, could very well fill their need for a fourth defensive lineman and do so at a lesser cost, while still getting similar or even better output than Lowry.
Prediction: the Packers won’t re-sign Dean Lowry
I don’t completely shut the door on a reunion because I do think there is an opportunity for Lowry to make an impact in a reduced role. However, the draft will give the Packers the opportunity to find a higher-upside player on a rookie deal or a cheaper option in free agency to play the 20 snaps per game. Given that the Packers are likely looking for someone to take on that level of playing time, cost should absolutely be a factor in the decision. In short, the interior defensive line group didn’t lose a step late last season with Lowry on IR, making him replaceable.