Final Thoughts on Green Bay Packers Week 4 matchup with New England
By Paul Bretl
The 2-1 Green Bay Packers are back at Lambeau Field to take on the 1-2 New England Patriots. As always, prior to kickoff, I have my final thoughts on the upcoming matchup.
Final Thoughts on Green Bay Packers Week 4 matchup with New England
– With Yosh Nijman questionable, do we see David Bakhtiari for the entire game? It sure seems that way. The other options include Zach Tom rotating at left tackle with Bakhtiari, although I’m not sure he’s even taken a rep at that position since joining the team. Or the Packers could rotate Elgton Jenkins with Bakhtiari, and on the series where Jenkins is at left tackle, some combination of Royce Newman, Zach Tom, and Jake Hanson would be at right tackle and right guard. However, as I wrote recently, continuity along the offensive line is important, and in this scenario, there is just way too much movement.
– You never truly know what you’re going to get from a Bill Belichick defense, but the Packers should be prepared for a lot of cover-1, or man coverage, and plenty of blitzes, as New England, ranks fifth in blitz rate this season. Aaron Rodgers, however, has been very effective when blitzed this season, completing 18 of 22 passes at 8.7 yards per attempt. With some time in the pocket, there is the potential that Rodgers could pick apart the Patriots’ cover-1 scheme.
– The Green Bay Packers have been easing Robert Tonyan back in, but this could be a big day for him as the New England defense has struggled at times against tight ends this season. Patriots’ safety Kyle Dugger, who is often tasked with covering tight ends and running backs, is also questionable.
– My guess is that with the elevation of cornerback Kiondre Thomas that Jaire Alexander won’t be active.
– The Green Bay Packers’ special teams unit ranks 14th by DVOA, but they will very much be tested against New England, who under Belichick are physical, disciplined, and willing to switch things up at the drop of a hat. This will be the special teams unit’s biggest challenge so far this season.
– Green Bay’s offensive tackles will face another very good edge rushing duo, something that the Packers have seemingly faced each week. Matthew Judon and Deatrich Wise have combined for seven of New England’s 10 sacks, and both rank in the top 30 in pressures created by PFF ($$). With that said, the rest of the Patriots’ defensive front hasn’t been very good about creating pressure or sacks.
– The run game is vital to the Packers’ success on offense, but so is the quick passing game. Rodgers has been incredibly efficient when getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds while it puts the pass-catchers in position to pick up YAC — which the Packers are the best in the NFL at — and sets up third and manageable situations–a must for this offense. Expect a heavy dose of quick passes again today, especially if New England is blitzing a lot.
– This was going to be the case even with Mac Jones, but without him, the Packers should very much be prepared for a heavy dose of the Patriots’ run game. Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris are averaging 4.9 yards per carry as a duo and have been difficult to bring down, both ranking among the best in yards after contact average per PFF.
– If there’s a game where we should see the Green Bay defense playing aggressively, this is it. Everyone knows that New England is going to run the ball. Brian Hoyer isn’t very mobile, and the Patriots are also without wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. Play to stop the run, trust your corners and don’t give a ton of cushion, and send some blitzes. However, a more realistic goal is that the Packers tackle well and remain in their heavier 3-4 personnel.
– The Packers’ third-down defense has been the best in the NFL this season, and one of the big reasons why is because of their success on first and second downs. Green Bay has been very good at getting after the quarterback, while De’Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker at linebacker have helped limit YAC–not to mention that it’s tough to throw on these cornerbacks.
– Belichick will try to take away what the Packers do best or rely on the most, which likely means the run game, as we’ve seen how quickly things can go bad when the Packers get one-dimensional. Last week, despite not picking up a lot of rushing yards, the Packers stuck with the ground game–do they have the discipline to do that again? Also, if it is tough sledding on the ground, what will the Packers’ counter be? I expect this Green Bay Packers offense to be tested against New England, and there will be several occasions where moving the ball won’t be easy.
– Prediction: Packers 20 – Patriots 10