With just two weeks left in the regular season, the Green Bay Packers are no longer in control of their own destiny in the division. They've lost back-to-back games by one possession, and things won't get much easier in the final two games of the season. That being said, the Packers' playoff dreams aren't dead and buried just yet.
The Packers might be without quarterback Jordan Love in a must-win game in Week 17, and with star pass rusher Micah Parsons also on the shelf, head coach Matt LaFleur's team is facing a major challenge. Fortunately, their strong record and the Detroit Lions' recent debacle have left the door wide open for the Packers qualify for the postseason dance.
With that in mind, we're going to talk about the Packers' realistic playoff chances and rank them from the least to the most likely scenarios.
Ranking the Packers' Playoff Chances
3. Least Likely: Packers Won't Make the Playoffs
With the Detroit Lions' loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers and after dropping consecutive games for the first time all year, HC Dan Campbell's team is now on the brink of elimination. They don't control their own destiny right now, and they can only make the playoffs as a wild-card team.
The only way in which the No. 7-seeded Packers won't make the playoffs would be if the Lions beat both the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears in their final two games, all while the Packers lose to both the Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings. The Packers are 9-5-1, and they swept the Lions in the regular season, so chances are that a premature offseason won't be in Green Bay's future
2. Unlikely But Probable: Packers Win the NFC North
According to The Athletic's NFL Playoff Simulator, the Packers have an 8% chance to win the division. That's not much of a window of opportunity, but at least there's a chance. It would require some help from the NFC North-leading Bears, though.
For this to happen, LaFleur's team would have to win out, and the Bears would have to lose both of their remaining games. Ben Johnson's team will close out the season with matchups with the San Francisco 49ers and Lions. As painful as it is to admit, Chicago is red hot and will likely win at least one of those games.
1. Most Likely: Packers Make the Playoffs as a Wild-Card Team
Per the playoff simulator, the Packers currently hold a 94% chance of making the playoffs. While their final two games of the season will both be against divisional rivals, they only need to win one of those games, and they're in. That 40-40 tie to the Dallas Cowboys doesn't look so bad anymore.
The Ravens have been one of the least consistent teams in all of football this season, and the Vikings will be playing for draft positioning in the season finale. Even if Love misses Sunday's game and returns for Week 18, the Packers should love their chances of making the playoffs.