Even though the Milwaukee Bucks have taken care of their most important offseason business by trading Giannis Antetokounmpo, they are not done wheeling and dealing. Not only do they still have to trim down their roster to 15 players, but they are also reportedly pursuing restricted free agent Peyton Watson.
According to ESPN's Shams Charania, the Bucks are competing with the Clippers and the Cavaliers in sign-and-trade discussions with the Nuggets for Watson. This means that the Bucks have to give Watson a contract offer that he would take while making Denver a strong enough trade offer to convince them to give up the 23-year-old forward.
But what is a fair package for Watson?
Bucks should be hesitant to be too aggressive for Peyton Watson
It has been previously reported that the Nuggets are offering Watson a five-year, $70 million deal. That is less than $15 million per season and well below what the versatile wing deserves. The Bucks should easily be able to beat that offer. They can't offer a fifth year like the Nuggets, but a multi-year deal worth between $15 and $20 million per season should be enough to lure Watson to Milwaukee.
Then comes the hard part. The Bucks are reportedly hesitant to give up a first-round pick in the sign-and-trade, per The Athletic's Eric Nehm. This makes plenty of sense given where they are as a franchise. They still owe their 2027 and 2029 first-round picks. Even though they got picks from Miami in the Antetokounmpo deal, they would still have more outgoing picks than incoming if they were to give up a first-rounder for Watson.
For a team that is expected to be in the lottery for the foreseeable future, that is not acceptable. Can the Bucks lure Watson to Milwaukee without giving up a first-round pick?
They would have to give up a player of some value. The Nuggets are cash-strapped, so they also wouldn't want to take back a player who makes a significant salary.
Fortunately, the Bucks have a couple of players the Nuggets may want. AJ Green, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Ryan Rollins would all be important contributors for Denver while making them cheaper. Rollins may be too much to give up just for Watson, but more assets could be included in that deal. Green and Jaquez, on the other hand, may not be enough. The Bucks could add a couple of second-round picks or a lower-level player like Jericho Sims to sweeten the pot.
Milwaukee has the ability to take back more salary than they send out. They have the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, starting at $15 million next season, and a $25.4 million trade exception from the Antetokounmpo deal. As long as Watson can fit into either of these exceptions, the Bucks don't need to match salaries in this deal.
So, a realistic package for Watson would either be a first-round pick without giving up another player, or one of Jaquez Jr. or Green, next to a couple of second-round picks.
Whether that's enough to beat out offers from the Clippers or the Cavs remains to be seen, but the Bucks should be hesitant to give up much more than that. At the end of the day, maintaining financial flexibility and retaining future assets will be the most important thing for the Bucks going forward.
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