Instant Takeaways: Packers trade QB Aaron Rodgers to Jets

As the offseason went on, it seemed more and more likely that the Green Bay Packers were going to trade away Aaron Rodgers, and the New York Jets always seemed to be the ideal landing spot for him, even if negotiations stalled for a bit. Now, finally, a deal has been reached.

With the news of the trade still very much fresh, here are my instant takeaways from the deal.

– Prior to Aaron Rodgers going on the Pat McAfee Show and saying he wanted to be a Jet, we all knew that was the case. However, hearing those words come from him was still surreal, to say the least.

– I can’t thank Rodgers enough for his time as a Green Bay Packer. He provided me with countless memories on Sundays. He loved the city and embraced being from here, and he truly knew what it meant and the significance that came with being the Green Bay Packers quarterback. Thank you, Aaron.

– If there were any doubts that a trade was going to take place, those notions should have been put to bed at the combine after Brian Gutekunst’s comments. However, if there was still doubt about Rodgers’ eventual exit, Mark Murphy squashed that with his comments a week later. After being clear as day in 2021 and 2022 that the Packers wouldn’t trade Rodgers, Gutekunst was as non-commital as one could get at the combine without outwardly saying that the Packers were looking to trade him. Murphy repeatedly used the past tense when discussing Rodgers’ tenure with Green Bay.

– The trade compensation that the Packers received feels like a big win for them. They went from 15 to 13 in Round 1, gained an additional second round pick, and at worst gain an additional second round pick in 2024 that could become a first if Rodgers plays 65% of the snaps. Tom Pelissero also reported that Rodgers would be reworking his deal with the Packers before being traded to help Green Bay’s salary cap situation—another big win.

– The draft always felt like a soft deadline for this deal—I imagine that Brian Gutekunst wanted compensation for this year, rather than waiting a full year for 2024. The way that the Packers went through free agency with limited free agent spending, this wasn’t a team operating as if they were going to gain $15 million in cap space, which is what would have happened had they traded Rodgers after June 1st. Another benefit of this deal getting done prior to that date as well, is that Rodgers contract will not be on the books in 2024.

– Prior to trading Rodgers, the Packers had about $21 million in cap space. They now have roughly $12 million. If on the Packers, Rodgers came with a cap hit of $31.6 million, but because of money that was already paid to him in the form of a bonus that hasn’t counted against the salary cap yet, he leaves behind a dead cap hit of $40.3 million.

– The good news is that the Packers didn’t have to pick up any of Rodgers’ guaranteed $59.5 million. If they had to, that also would have accounted towards the 2023 salary cap in the form of dead cap, further reducing the now-limited cap space that they have. More good news is that following the 2023 season, Rodgers will be off the books in 2024, freeing up over $40 million in cap space.

– Obviously, this trade doesn’t happen without a big leap by Jordan Love in 2022. Reports about the confidence that the Packers organization has in him really picked up this offseason, not to mention that over the last six months, Aaron Jones, De’Vondre Campbell, and Allen Lazard have all spoken very highly of him. We saw a glimpse of that progression when Love was facing Philadelphia.

– Equally as obvious, Rodgers’ play was very much a factor in this as well. Over the last two years, Brian Guteknst and Co. have acquiesced to a number of Rodgers’ demands, however, when there are long stretches of him looking like an average to below-average quarterback, it becomes a lot more difficult to justify that approach–especially with Love making big strides in the background. A report from Mike Silver of Bally Sports stated that there was an overall “exhaustion” of Rodgers on the Packers’ end.

– If at any point this offseason there were talks between the Packers and Rodgers centered around a return – maybe there were, or maybe there weren’t – this time, it should have been Gutey and the Packers making the demands if they had any interest in having Rodgers back. These demands could have come in the form of a pay cut, so Green Bay would have had more salary cap flexibility to build a team around Rodgers. Or maybe it would have included him being a part of offseason programs–something he has missed the last two years. Perhaps it could have meant running an offense closer to what Matt LaFleur envisioned rather than the Frankenstein mashup Green Bay has been running. Of course, this is all just speculation on my part and is now a moot point, but things very much shifted within the organization over the last 12 months.

– As I alluded to initially, the Jets always seemed like the ideal landing spot for Rodgers. They have playmakers on offense, along with the draft compensation and cap space to make this work, and of course, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. They’re ready to win and believe they are a quarterback away from being Super Bowl contenders.

– With that said, I do wonder how many other teams were aggressively pursuing Rodgers because my guess is very few–if any. The Raiders were reportedly not interested, and who knows how willing Green Bay was to send Rodgers to an NFC team. From the get-go, the potential landing spots for Rodgers was likely an already small group of teams—very few feel like they are just a quarterback away from being a Super Bowl contender.

– Now, with Love as the starter, the Packers’ offseason plans shouldn’t change all that much. The goal should still be to win games. In order to truly evaluate Love as a quarterback, Gutey should put the best team around him. Also, if you see this as a potential opportunity for a salary cap reset, that just isn’t the case. For one, the Packers have already restructured just about every available contract. And two, if anyone wants to see Love succeed, it’s Gutey, which means he’s going to give him every opportunity to do so.

– I would look for the Packers to be active in the quarterback market, whether that be with adding a veteran or in the draft. Love and Danny Etling are the only quarterbacks on the roster at the moment, and there is value in having an experienced backup behind Love as he navigates his first season as a starter. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Green Bay spend a Day 2 or 3 pick on the position, either. Remember, in 2008, Rodgers’ first as a starter, Ted Thompson drafted Brian Brohm and Matt Flynn.

– It’s easy to look back at what Seattle got for Russell Wilson in 2022 and say that Gutey should have traded Rodgers then. But at the time, he was the back-to-back MVP, and Green Bay clearly didn’t have nearly as much faith in Love as they do now. For a team still wanting to compete, moving on from Rodgers at that time wasn’t really an option.

– A decision on Love’s fifth-year option for the 2024 season has to be made a week after the draft. If picked up, Love’s salary next season of over $20 million will be guaranteed. Although he still has to go out and prove that he’s a capable starting quarterback, there shouldn’t be any hesitation in picking that option up this offseason. If he ends up being the guy, that’s an inexpensive contract by quarterback standards and sets up the opportunity to talk extension without Love becoming a free agent. If things go poorly and Green Bay decides to look for a new quarterback in 2024, again, that contract is inexpensive enough in today’s NFL that it won’t prohibit them from doing so.

– The parallels between the end of Rodgers’ career in Green Bay and that of Brett Favre’s are eery. Not only did both get traded to the Jets, but each of their final throws as Packers were interceptions.