Breaking: Packers trade QB Aaron Rodgers to New York Jets
By Paul Bretl
Well, it’s happened. The Green Bay Packers have traded away the four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets, according to Adam SchefterAdam Schefter.
The Packers will send Rodgers, the 15th overall pick, and a 2023 fifth round pick (No. 170) to the Jets and in return, they will receive the 13th overall pick in this year’s draft, pick No. 42, a sixth round pick (No. 207), along with a conditional 2024 second-round pick that becomes a first if Rodgers plays 65% of the plays. New York will have to rework Rodgers’ deal as well.
Much was made about leverage this offseason, with the Jets having no viable secondary option at quarterback while the Packers were actively trying to trade Rodgers, who didn’t want to be there. Both teams ended up getting what they wanted out of it, but the Packers did quite well for themselves.
Although trade talks stalled for a bit, likely due to the size and complexity of Rodgers’ deal along with the uncertainty of his future beyond 2023, landing with the Jets always made the most sense for Rodgers.
For one, the Packers keep Rodgers out of the NFC, but New York also had the available draft compensation to send to Green Bay. They have workable cap space, several young playmakers already on offense, old friend Nathaniel Hackett as the offensive coordinator, and an overall team ready to win. In addition to that, the free agent quarterback market dried up quickly with Derek Carr going to New Orleans and Jimmy Garoppolo signing with Las Vegas weeks ago.
Outside of New York, it doesn’t sound like there were many other teams who made a strong run in recent weeks for Rodgers. Overall, this was never a massive trade market for Rodgers. There are very few teams who feel that they are just a quarterback away, also Rodgers contract, along with the uncertainty of how long he will play, could have been deterrents as well.
These factors – Rodgers’ deal and the uncertainty around his future – as already mentioned, would also contribute to why negotiations between Green Bay and New York took so long. Coming to an agreement wasn’t nearly as simple as deciding which players or picks to swap. Rodgers’ contract and the $60 million he is guaranteed will have to be reworked by the Jets, and New York likely wanted the Packers to pick up a portion of that payment, which would have further stressed Green Bay’s already tight cap situation. Even for a player of Rodgers’ stature, $60 million cash for potentially just one season is still a lot of money.
Over the previous two years, there has been plenty of speculation around Rodgers’ future with the team, this offseason had a different feeling and tone to it. Instead of Brian Gutekunst being adamant that Rodgers wouldn’t be traded when at the NFL Combine, he made it clear that all options were on the table. A week later, Mark Murphy then made it crystal clear that Rodgers returning was not Green Bay’s preferred option.
As we all know, a lot can change over the course of the year, with this trade being more proof of that. There have been reports that there is now an abundance of confidence in Jordan Love throughout the organization after the developmental leap he took in his third season, and although a small sample size, it’s something we got a glimpse of against Philadelphia. If the Packers don’t feel strongly about Love, there’s the very real possibility that this trade doesn’t happen.
Rodgers’ drop-off in performance also exacerbated the situation. The Packers acquiesced to a lot of his demands over the last few seasons, but that becomes tougher to work around when his play is closer to the league average rather than being elite—especially when there is belief in the young backup that Green Bay spent a first-round pick on.
By trading Rodgers now, the Packers’ salary cap situation takes a hit. If Rodgers had been a Packer in 2023, he would account for $31.6 million against the salary cap. However, with him playing elsewhere, he leaves behind a dead cap hit of $40.3 million, reducing the Packers’ available salary cap space from roughly $24 million to just around $15.5 million. When it comes to creating more cap space, the Packers have very few options remaining, with an extension for Rashan Gary that will create between $3 million and $4 million their biggest remaining move–outside of an unlikely scenario where Darnell Savage is traded.
The good news for the Packers is that they didn’t have to take on any of Rodgers $59.5 million guaranteed salary, which would have further reduced their already limited cap space. By getting this trade competed before June 1st, Rodgers’ contract is now completely off the books for 2024.
This is now Love’s team, but the Packers could still be in the market for a veteran quarterback addition in free agency. Green Bay also has to decide whether or not to pick up Love’s fifth-year option for the 2024 season, which comes with a guaranteed salary of over $20 million. I fully expect the Packers to pick this up.
While losing Rodgers is significant, it shouldn’t mean that the Packers’ offseason plans in what’s left of free agency or in the draft should change all that drastically. In order to best evaluate Love, Gutekunst and Co. should put the best team around him, just as they would with Rodgers.