A very Packers and Brian Gutekunst-esque 7 round mock draft

Trying to pinpoint what Green Bay Packers GM Brian Gutekunst is going to do in the draft certainly isn’t always easy. The selections of Rashan Gary, Jordan Love, AJ Dillon, and Quay Walker are just a few examples of draft picks that caught many off guard.

However, with that said, with most position groups, there are specific trends when it comes to the athletic testing and measurables of prospects that have developed during Gutekunst’s tenure. These thresholds that have been established could give us some insight into who the Packers might be interested in come draft night.

In the Green Bay Draft Guide powered by Packer Report, Jacob Morley took a deep dive into what those specific measurements and testing numbers are for each position group and created four tiers, ranging from Tier 1, where every threshold was met, to Tier 4, where that selection would be an outlier for the Packers.

For the specifics of what these thresholds are, along with other Packers draft info and prospect profiles, you can purchase the Green Bay Draft Guide here.

Using Morley’s tiers as my guide, I wanted to put together a very Brian Gutekunst-like mock draft with as many Tier 1 prospects as I could select. For the most part, I was able to accomplish this, but as we all know, there are other factors in play, such as positional need, positional value, and simply who was available, so two of my picks fell into the Tier 2 category, which is defined as just missing Tier 1.

Also of note, using Pro Football Network’s mock draft simulator, I did acquire the 42nd overall pick from the New York Jets as part of the Aaron Rodgers trade.

Pick 15: Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa (Tier 2)

6’5″ | 272 | RAS: 9.75

Stats to know: Van Ness doesn’t have a ton of experience, just 846 career snaps, but he had a huge final season, recording 43 pressures, eight sacks, and ranked 24th in PFF’s run defense grade. He’s also versatile, with 468 of those career snaps coming lined up in the B-gap.

Fit with Packers: The Packers need to bolster their edge rusher depth. It’s a heavily rotated position with four or five players seeing the field each week, and that lack of depth was exposed last season without Rashan Gary as Green Bay struggled to get after the quarterback regularly. Van Ness would become an immediate member of that rotation and could also provide the Packers some snaps inside, where they also need more depth.

Pick 42: Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State (Tier 1)

6’5″ | 253 | RAS: 9.70

Stats to know: Unfortunately, Musgrave’s 2022 season was cut to just two games due to injury, but it looked like a breakout season was coming. He caught 11 of 15 passes at an impressive 15.4 yards per catch with a touchdown. Musgrave spent roughly 40% of those snaps in the slot and has over 500 run-blocking snaps as well in Oregon State’s zone-blocking scheme.

Fit with the Packers: Musgrave has the potential to give the Packers some dynamic abilities in the passing game, an element that Green Bay was missing while many of the 2022 playoff teams had. His experience as a blocker will help bring some versatility to the Packers’ tight end room as well, again, something else that was missing last season. It’s also worth noting that very few rookie tight ends contribute in a significant way in that first season.

Pick 45: Gervon Dexter, IDL, FLorida (Tier 1)

6’5″ | 310 | RAS: 9.70

Stats to know: Over the last two seasons, where most of Dexter’s playing time came, he recorded 48 pressures along with six sacks. In 2022, his 24 run tops were the eighth most in college football by an interior defensive lineman. Most of his snaps came from the B-gap, but he does have A-gap experience too.

Fit with the Packers: With only five interior defensive linemen on the roster, just three of which have NFL experience, Gervon would likely see some playing time right away at a heavily rotated position. He possesses a ton of upside with his athletic abilities and size, but his game does need refinement, so I wouldn’t be surprised if his role as a rookie would be somewhat small.

Pick 78: AT Perry, WR, Wake Forest (Tier 1)

6’3″ | 198 | RAS: 9.84

Stats to know: Perry was a high-volume target at Wake Forest, with 211 passes thrown his way between 2021 and 2022, and showcased the ability to win at all three levels of the field beyond the line of scrimmage. During the 2021 season, he ranked seventh in downfield receiving yards and averaged 19.9 yards per catch. In 2022, Perry averaged 14.1 yards per reception with 11 touchdowns, and for what it’s worth, he’s graded out quite well as a run-blocker throughout his career.

Fit with the Packers: Depending on the responsibilities that the Packers want to give Perry right away, he could initially be a downfield target. However, to maximize what Perry can do, he would also take on other route responsivities in different parts of the field. This, coupled with Romeo Doubs’ ability as a route runner and Christian Watson taking on larger route-running roles, could make it quite difficult for defenses to decipher what each receiver is doing pre-snap because all three can win in different parts of the field and with varying routes.

Pick 116: Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Virginia (Tier 1)

6’1″ | 205 | RAS: 9.49

Stats to know: Wicks spent most of his career lined up on the boundary and was a heavy downfield target in the Virginia offense. During his breakout 2021 season, only 20 of Wicks’ 93 total targets came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He ranked 11th in downfield receiving yards and averaged 21.1 yards per catch. His production dipped in 2022, catching only 30 of 72 passes while averaging 14.3 yards per catch. Drops were, at times, an issue.

Fit with the Packers: Not that Watson won’t still be a vertical threat in Green Bay’s offense, but Matt LaFleur mentioned at the NFL Owners’ meetings that he would be adding more routes to his receiving repertoire. More routes means more responsibilities. Adding Wicks, who can stress defenses vertically, will provide Watson and the other Green Bay pass catchers more room to operate underneath. We saw early on in 2022 how quickly defenses can condense the field when there isn’t a vertical presence to worry about.

Pick 149: Anthony Johnson Jr, S, Iowa State (Tier 1)

5’11” | 205 | RAS: 8.08

Stats to know: The 2022 season was Johnson’s first as a safety; before that, he was a boundary cornerback. Johnson spent most of his time lined up in the box or in the slot. He was a willing run defender but did miss some tackles at times. In coverage last season, he allowed 12.4 yards per catch on 19 completions with two pass breakups and two interceptions.

Fit with the Packers: Although safety upgrades are still needed, the Packers at least have options on the roster, so addressing this need right away in the draft isn’t a must–and that’s a good thing given the depth of this class. Johnson could compete for playing time right away as the Packers search for a running mate next to Darnell Savage, but most likely, this may end up as more of a developmental season for him with some snaps potentially when Green Bay is in dime or on special teams.

Pick 170: Josh Whyle, TE, Cincinnati (Tier 1)

6’6″ | 248 | RAS: 8.94

Stats to know: Whyle was targeted 147 over his career, including a career-high of 51 in 2022, catching 65% of those passes at 11.9 yards per catch, along with 14 touchdowns. He’s been one of the better run-blocking tight ends for two seasons by PFF’s grading system, and nearly 40% of his snaps have come from the slot. Whyle also has just under 400 special teams snaps.

Fit with the Packers: Taking two tight ends in this deep draft class felt like a must. Whyle, specifically, will add some needed unpredictability to this room with his ability to impact the game both as a pass-catcher and a blocker. With how the tight end room was constructed in 2022, the Packers didn’t have a ton of versatility, with Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis, and Josiah Deguara all having very defined roles. This element will help keep defenses off-balance and guessing, with Whyle able to fill a variety of roles, and in turn, that hopefully makes things a little easier on Jordan Love.

Pick 232: Jake Witt, OT, Northern Michigan (Tier 1)

6’7″ | 302 | RAS: 9.80

Stats to know: Witt began his career at tight end and didn’t make the position change until about halfway through the 2021 season. Witt then started all 11 games in 2022 at left tackle and would put on an impressive showing at the NFL Combine.

Fit with Packers: As you’d expect, Witt’s game is raw, but the upside is evident. The Packers don’t need a starting tackle in 2023 with David Bakhtiari, Zach Tom, and Yosh Nijman, among others, on the roster, but that could change next offseason, with Bakhtiari potentially being cut at that time and Nijman being an unrestricted free agent. Witt is a developmental prospect, which is what you’re getting at this stage of the draft, and 2023 may end up being more of a red-shirt season for him.

Pick 235: Jason Taylor II, S, Oklahoma State (Tier 1)

5’11” | 204 | RAS: 8.93

Stats to know: In the previous two seasons, Taylor played 567 snaps from the box, 706 as a free safety, and 397 from the slot. He’s a very willing tackler, totaling 88 just in 2022, although missed tackles were an issue at times. He also displayed great ball skills with six interceptions and four pass breakups in 2022 as well.

Fit with the Packers: Due to the lack of depth at safety in this draft class and how the Packers have their safety room set up, selecting two safeties wasn’t a must for me, despite the need. However, I’m a fan of Taylor’s game and he fits what the Packers look for. I wouldn’t expect him to start right away, but I love his potential with his ball skills and athletic abilities. Taylor has over 500 career special teams snaps and could make an impact in that phase of the game immediately.

Pick 242: Tyson Bagent, QB, Shepherd (Tier 2)

6’3″ | 213 | RAS: 8.97

Stats to know: Bagent has over 2,000 career pass attempts, making him one of the more experienced quarterbacks you’ll see. He threw for 5,000 yards in 2021 with 53 touchdowns to just 13 interceptions. This past season, Bagent threw for just shy of 4,600 yards with another 41 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He completed 69% of his career pass attempts.

Fit with the Packers: After Aaron Rodgers is traded, the Packers will have only two quarterbacks on the roster. They’ll need to find a backup for Jordan Love but also need at least two additional arms for training camp and the preseason. Bagent is a developmental player but also an intriguing prospect with an impressive college career.

Pick 256: Evan Hull, RB, Northwestern (Tier 1)

5’10” | 209 | RAS: 9.18

Stats to know: Hull rushed for nearly 2,000 yards and found the endzone 12 times between the 2021 and 2022 seasons, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, including 5.1 in 2021. Hull was also an accomplished pass-catcher, leading all running backs in receiving yards last season with 536 while averaging 9.9 yards per reception. Hull has experience playing both from the slot and out wide.

Fit with the Packers: Hull is very much the type of running back that Matt LaFleur loves to have in his offense with his ability to impact both the running and passing games. The bulk of the workload at the position will still belong to Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, but perhaps Hull could see some snaps in specific situations. In the past, LaFleur has discussed the value of having a third running back on the roster to lean on. As we look ahead to the running back room in 2024, there potentially becomes a lot of uncertainty, with both Jones and Dillon possibly playing elsewhere.

All stats courtesy of pff.com