The Mystery of Bucks’ Guard Pat Connaughton’s Shooting
After a disappointing exit from last year’s playoffs at the hands of the Boston Celtics, the Milwaukee Bucks have bounced back with arguably one of their deepest and most talented rosters during the Giannis era.
They currently hold the league’s best record and the number one seed in the East. With new additions in Joe Ingles and Jae Crowder, another MVP campaign by Giannis Antetokounmpo, and career seasons by Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez, the Bucks look poised to make another deep run in this year’s playoffs. Unfortunately, one person seems to be lagging behind everyone on the team: Pat Connaughton.
During his time in Milwaukee, Planet Pat has proven to be an integral part of this team. Over the last two seasons, Pat has posted career highs in points per game (9.9) and three-point percentage (39.5). With his silky shooting, hustle on the defensive end, and surprising knack for grabbing offensive boards, Pat proved himself to be one of the few role players for the Bucks (really rare) that could be counted on in big games in the regular season and playoffs.
Over the last two years in the playoffs, Pat has been averaging 8.2 points a game, shooting an absurd 39% from three. While playing in the NBA Finals, the game’s biggest stage, Pat upped his averages even more, scoring around 9 points a game and shooting a crisp 44% from three.
Whether through transition, dribble handoffs, or just a simple corner three, I could confidently pencil in Pat for some threes during the playoffs. I mean, come on, hearing the Mike Breen “BANG” for that Pat three in the finals still gives me goosebumps.
This season, however, Pat Connaughton looks almost unrecognizable on the court. Though his counting stats look relatively the same (7.9 Pts 4.8 Reb 1.4 Ast), Pat’s shooting has noticeably looked worse than his last two years. This season Pat is shooting 34% from three, with around the same attempts he had last year. While some may argue this percentage isn’t terrible and might just chalk it up to being a weird season, digging deeper into some advanced stats show some concerning signs.
With the ongoing explosion of analytics in the NBA, it’s possible to identify how a player shoots from each part of the court. For this article, I will strictly look at Pat’s shooting from the corners and above-the-break, as these are the shots he primarily takes in the offense. Below are Pat Connaughton’s percentages from different types of three-point attempts over the last three years, starting from the 2020-21 season.
- Right Corner: 40.0, 40.3, 36.1
- Left Corner: 36.8, 52.3, 33.3
- Above the Break: 36.7, 37.3, 33.3
Looking at all these stats at once shows just how bad, shooting-wise, Pat has been for the Bucks this year. Across the board, Pat is shooting his worst percentage from each zone over the last three years. To make this incredibly depressing, Pat’s best three-point percentage this season, based on zone, would rank his worst over the previous three years.
Though he might look like the same Pat that we’ve all learned to love to watch on the court, something seems off with his shot this year. While Connaughton underwent surgery on his shooting hand last February, his hand didn’t seem to stop him when he returned for the playoffs, as I covered above. In addition to ruling out any age-related decline (currently, he’s only 30), it’s a mystery why Pat’s shooting is so unusually inefficient this year.
With the playoffs rapidly approaching, it’s disappointing not to see some signs of life in Pat Connaugton’s shooting. As Bucks fans are way too familiar with, the team’s three-point shooting goes down the toilet during the playoffs. Over the last two seasons, the Bucks have ranked 11th and 14th in three-point percentage in the playoffs. Though this year’s roster carries some efficient shooters (Joe Ingles, Jevon Carter, Grayson Allen, and Jae Crowder are shooting close to 40% from three), it would’ve been great to know the Bucks had their playoff-proven shooter in prime form.