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2023 Milwaukee Brewers Win Projections Recap

By Harrison Carter

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 02: Pablo Lopez #49 of the Miami Marlins throws a pitch in the seventh inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on October 02, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 02: Pablo Lopez #49 of the Miami Marlins throws a pitch in the seventh inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on October 02, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) /
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As Spring Training is set to begin and the March 30th Opening Day inches closer, various projection models have released their record projections for the 2023 MLB season. Let’s look at what each model projects for the Milwaukee Brewers.

FanGraphs

FanGraphs projects the Brewers to finish with a record of 84-48, and second in the NL Central behind the Cardinals at 86-76. Yet again, the NL Central is predicted to be one of, if not the worst division in baseball as the Cubs, Pirates, and Reds are each projected to have 75,72, and 67 wins, respectively. The fight for the NL Central title may come down to who can beat up on these three teams the most.

As a team, FanGraphs expects the Brewers to be a pitching heavy team, similar to the last few years. The model predicts the Brewers to be 21st in hitting WAR but sixth in pitching WAR. Whether such poor hitting could sustain a playoff team is yet to be seen.

As for specific players, the batting numbers FanGraphs projects are fairly dreadful. No Brewers hitter is projected to hit over .250. Willy Adames is expected to be the most valuable Brewers hitter with a WAR of 4.1. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are unsurprisingly the two most valuable pitchers, as both are expected to have fantastic seasons with ERAs hovering around three.

PECTOA

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections are much kinder to the Brewers than FanGraphs. PECOTA gives the Brewers a 56% chance of winning the division and they lead the NL Central with a projected 87.7 wins. The Cardinals are not far behind, however, with 85.6 projected wins.

Similar to FanGraphs, PECOTA is not very high on the Brewers offense. This model does see new Brewer Jesse Winker as one of the most valuable Brewers hitters, with a respectable slash line of .250/.360/.415 being projected. Additionally, this model expects substantial playing time from Brice Turang and Sal Frelick, both of whom have yet to make their big league debut. Combined with Garett Mitchell returning for his second big league season, expect a lot of opportunities for these prospects.

PECOTA also expects big things from Burnes and Woodruff, with ERAs under three. Someone other than Woody and Burnes that the model predicts will have a great year is Aaron Ashby. The model gives Ashby a 3.30 ERA for the season, both starting games and coming out of the bullpen. For someone who has had some control problems throughout his career, PECOTA projects a 2.47 strikeout/walk ratio, which would be a fantastic mark for Ashby.

Overall, I think the models are fair to the 2023 Brewers. Barring some turnaround seasons from underperforming players or breakout performances from some of the younger players, the Milwaukee offense will most likely be below average once again. However, the pitching should be able to carry this team to a win count in the mid-80s and hopefully an NL Central championship. Spring Training will give us a good look at how the 2023 Brewers may preform.

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