5 Big Questions the Packers Face this Offseason

The offseason has, unfortunately, come early for the Green Bay Packers following what was a very disappointing season. As we look ahead to what’s next for this team, I have my five big questions that they’ll have to answer in the coming months.

Once again, it is going to be a very interesting offseason, as all signs point to the Packers trying to make things work with the current group of players they have. The feeling I have after listening to Matt LaFleur and Brian Gutekunst this past week is that they have no plans on hitting the reset button. So if that’s the case, how do they get back to being contenders?

What happens at quarterback for the Packers?

Another offseason and more questions than answers surrounding the Green Bay Packers quarterback position. Currently, Aaron Rodgers is taking some time to think through what he wants for the 2023 season, whether that be to return, to retire, or who knows, maybe to be traded.

There really isn’t a scenario here that would surprise me, but if I were to guess, I would say that Rodgers is back in Green Bay for one more season. I think that both Matt LaFleur and Brian Gutekunst would like to run it back once more if given the opportunity, and while sure, Rodgers’ contract is year-to-year to a degree, the Packers made that massive financial commitment with more than the 2022 season in mind.

I also think that it would be hard for the ultra-competitive Rodgers to step away and retire after such a disappointing end to the season. One would think that he would want to go out on a higher note than that. When it comes to Rodgers being traded, not to say that the Packers shouldn’t explore this route, but I see that as the least likely option. For one, it comes with a massive dead cap hit for Green Bay. And two, I do wonder what Rodgers’ trade value is at this point. Is a team willing to give up multiple high draft picks for potentially just one year of Rodgers? Not to mention that he certainly wasn’t playing at an MVP level in 2022.

As far as Jordan Love goes, if the Packers do have Rodgers back, that again should tell us where they see Love as a starting quarterback. When they gave Rodgers that massive new deal last offseason, that told us they didn’t think Love was ready to take over. If Rodgers is the starter in 2023, that tells us the same thing, and at this point, Green Bay may never believe that Love will be ready as he enters his fourth NFL season. If this is, in fact, how things play out, then the Packers should just move on, both for themselves and also for Love. He deserves the chance to play.

Love could try to demand a trade if Rodgers returns, although he lacks leverage. And as I wrote a few months ago, from a salary cap perspective, if the Packers want both Love and Rodgers back for 2023, they can make it work fairly easily. This may be the year, however, where Green Bay is at the crossroads and actually has to choose between the two.

Will Joe Barry be back as the defensive coordinator?

To be honest, I’m not sure how much of a question this is anymore after Matt LaFleur told reporters that he expects very few, if any, coaching changes to take place this offseason. With that said, perhaps there was some coach speak in there. Even with the defense’s performance over the final month of the season, it’s a move that I still believe would be justified, and when asked about Barry’s future, it’s not as if LaFleur is going to be direct with reporters about what he’s thinking.

Outside of the final five games of the season, where again, credit to Barry and the defense, the unit looked very good overall; this was a unit that very much underperformed all year long. Expectations were that this could be a top-five defense in football, and as the offense figured things out post-Davante Adams, they’d have the defense to lean on. However, oftentimes, that didn’t happen.

Outside of Rashan Gary, a consistent pass rush was hard to come by, and there was little creativity through stunts and twists to help generate any. Miscommunications were constant on the back end, which led to some major coverage breakdowns. Barry’s passive approach, especially in certain situations, was also frustrating to watch. At the end of the day, the players weren’t playing all that well either, but when a majority of one side of the ball is playing below expectations, and the same issues continue to be prevalent over a majority of the season, that falls on coaching. Somewhere, there was a major disconnect.

On the flip side, in addition to the adjustments Barry made coming out of the bye week and the defense’s play during that stretch, one other reason why LaFleur could keep him is because of the lack of complimentary football and inconsistencies on offense. There were a number of instances where the offense put the defense in some very difficult spots, and eventually, they broke down. This would also be LaFleur’s third defensive coordinator in five seasons, and continuity does matter.

How will the Packers go about creating needed cap space?

Once again, the Green Bay Packers are going to be tight up against the salary cap this season. Over the Cap currently has them at $16.2 million over the projected 2023 salary cap, and as I wrote about recently when it comes to cap-saving moves, the Packers don’t have many significant ones at their disposal.

Veteran cuts are usually the quickest and easiest ways to create cap space, and the $10.4 million in savings from moving on from Aaron Jones is the largest amount of cap space they can create. However, all signs point to the Packers still trying to compete, regardless of who the quarterback is, and this team can’t do so without Jones. David Bakhtiari is another name brought up as a veteran cut candidate, which would save Green Bay $5.9 million in cap space this season. But again, I don’t see it as worth it. Bakhtiari was still playing at a high level when on the field, and his knee wasn’t much of an issue over his last several games.

So if cuts aren’t going to be the main avenue to creating cap space, the restructuring of contracts will be. Jones, Bakhtiari, Kenny Clark, and Jaire Alexander are all prime candidates for this, with cap hits in 2023 of over $20 million. In short, a contract restructure takes a portion of the player’s base salary this season, and converts it to a signing bonus, which then allows the team to spread those cap charges out over the life of the contract.

This, again, is going to be an offseason where the Packers aren’t spending much in free agency. Their biggest improvements are going to have to come internally. 

Which of the Packers pending free agents will be back?

The Packers have 17 free agents in 2023. Below is that list of players, along with their free agency type.

Adrian Amos – Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)

Dean Lowry – UFA

Mason Crosby – UFA

Marcedes Lewis – UFA

Allen Lazard – UFA

Robert Tonyan – UFA

Jarran Reed – UFA

Randall Cobb – UFA

Dallin Leavitt – UFA

Rudy Ford – UFA

Eric Wilson – UFA

Yosh Nijman – Restricted Free Agent (RFA)

Keisean Nixon – UFA

Corey Ballentine – UFA

Krys Barnes – RFA

Tyler Davis – RFA

Justin Hollins – UFA

In an attempt to add some sort of clarity to this long list, if Lewis wants to return, the Packers will gladly have him back. If Rodgers is back for 2023, you can bet that Cobb will be as well. I would also anticipate all three RFA’s to return because their contracts are relatively inexpensive.

Leavitt, Ford, Wilson, and Nixon were all core special teams players. This past offseason, Gutekunst told reporters that he went “out of character,” signing special teams-specific players rather than emphasizing offensive or defensive contributions, and it’s a move that helped turn this unit around. Gutey also said on Friday that he would take a similar approach this offseason. So with that nugget of information, I would guess that Leavitt, Ford, and Nixon will be back, and I’m sure they’ll try to get Wilson as well, who won’t break the bank.

Everyone else on the list is up in the air. Crosby was very good on field goals, but it’s clear he doesn’t have the same leg strength anymore. Lazard could easily be out of Green Bay’s price range. Meanwhile, players like Lowry, Reed, Amos, or Tonyann could be back at the right price, given the lack of depth at each of those positions.

What positions of need do the Packers prioritize?

I go into greater detail here about each specific position group, but some of the bigger positions of need for the Packers this offseason include safety, tight end, interior defensive lineman, edge rusher, and receiver.

Safety and tight end are in a similar place, with the Packers lacking players at the moment. Darnell Savage and Tariq Carpenter are the only safeties under contract in 2023, with Josiah Deguara (and likely RFA Tyler Davis) the only tight ends.

The play of the interior defensive line was a big part of the Packers’ success during those final games, but for much of the year, this group lacked a consistent pass rush, and Green Bay was again one of the worst run defenses in football. Edge rusher is one of the most important positions in the game, and depth is again a question mark. Preston Smith is also no longer a long-term option, with 2023 potentially being his final season.

With only the three rookies from 2022 under contract, receiver is again a top need. While I expect the Packers to go to the draft for help, a veteran presence would go a long ways as well. Other positions like offensive tackle can always be added to–although the Packers seem to be in good shape here if Bakhtiari is back. Running back is one that could vault up the urgency ladder if Jones is not back.

Bonus: Should the Packers run it back again?

As I’ve already alluded to, I think next year’s roster isn’t going to look drastically different than the group we saw in 2022. Given how the season ended, it’s certainly worth asking whether or not that’s the right approach. Because this is the Green Bay Packers, I don’t see a rebuild being apart of their vocabulary. On top of that, they’re limited in what they can do. They’ll have little cap space to make any splash signings, and when it comes to roster cuts, outside of Jones, Bakhtiari, Preston Smith, and Rasul Douglas, there aren’t any moves that provide a them with a decent amount of newfound cap space to work with. And when it comes to Bakhtiari, Smith, and Douglas, the savings are minimal, and in my opinion, not worth it given the lost production. To a degree, the Packers feel kind of stuck right now.