What Should the Bucks do with Grayson Allen?
The NBA trade deadline falls on February 9th this year, and the Milwaukee Bucks have a lot of decisions to make.
After starting off the season red hot, the Bucks have started to falter, which includes a 4-6 record in their last 10 games. The Bucks have been linked to potential trade candidates, including Utah’s Jordan Clarkson and Phoenix’s Jae Crowder. The problem is in order acquire an impact player, the salaries must somewhat match. The contracts that make the most sense for the Bucks to trade are Jordan Nwora at $3 million and George Hill at $4 million, but these players are not that valuable in trades and no team would want to give up a positive asset in return.
Grayson Allen is the best trade chip the Bucks have that could be used to acquire an impact player. Allen makes $8.5 million this year and is under contract through next season. He appears to be the favorite candidate amongst Bucks fans to be traded, but let’s see whether or not this is a good idea.
The fact is, Allen is having a confusing season for a multitude of reasons. First, he was red hot shooting the ball to start the year, but has since hit a massive cold streak, shooting just 31.8% from 3 in the last 10 games. Still, on the year Allen is shooting a more than serviceable 38.3% from 3. The Bucks as a team are shooting poorly from 3, shooting 34.2%, which ranks 21st in the league. So while Allen is not shooting the ball well as of right now, so is the rest of the team.
The next reason I think Allen’s season is so interesting is because of the misconstrued assumption that he is a poor defender and his value comes from his offense. This year at least, the statistics show Allen to be a positive defender and an average offensive player. When Allen is on the court, the Bucks allow 107.3 points per 100 possessions, which would be first in the league, per Cleaning the Glass. When Allen is off the floor, the number increases to 113.1, which would be 10th in the league. While it is true that Allen plays most of his time with the Bucks’ best defenders, it is apparent that the Bucks are capable of being an elite defensive team with Allen on the court.
Offensively, the Bucks have about the same points per 100 possessions with Allen off the floor versus when he’s on the floor. However, the Bucks’ effective field goal percentage rises by 1.4% when Allen is on the court. Of qualified NBA players, 71% have a worse on/off court differential in effective field goal percentage. Overall, with Allen on the court, the Bucks play like a 53 win team, but with Allen off the court, the Bucks play like a 38 win team. Again, Allen shares the majority of his minutes with players like Giannis and Jrue, but these numbers show that Allen is not a liability when he is on the court.
The Bucks need to get healthy, plain and simple. This team is built around have three All-Star caliber players with a good supporting cast, and when one or two of the All-Stars are injured for long periods of time, the team is bound to suffer with players trying to take on bigger loads than they normally would.
Should Grayson Allen be traded for a player such as Jordan Clarkson or Jae Crowder and would that trade improve the Bucks? It is probably an unanswerable question unless he does get potentially traded. But to single out Allen as a main issue when the majority of the team is struggling doesn’t seem terribly fair when the Bucks are simply better with Allen on the floor than when he is not on the floor. The Bucks need Middleton back so that players can play the role they were meant to play.