Packers control own playoff destiny following Commanders loss
By Paul Bretl
There is no more scoreboard watching for the Green Bay Packers required. With the Washington Commanders’ loss on Sunday to the Cleveland Browns, the Packers now control their own destiny.
Just about a month ago, the Packers were coming off a loss to Philadelphia that dropped them to 4-8 on the season. Between their play and the number of teams they had to jump in the standings, their playoff hopes seemed dashed.
However, fast forward a few weeks, and Green Bay finds themselves on a three-game win streak, and essentially everything out of their control has broken their way.
Last week seemed to be the tipping point for the Packers, with Detroit losing to Carolina, which gave them their eighth loss of the season. A loss to the Packers next week will give them nine. A Seattle loss last week as well also put them at 7-8, but while they and the Packers could still end with the same record, the Packers have the tiebreaker with the better NFC record. The last domino to fall was a loss by the Commanders against the Browns — after they lost last week as well — that now puts them at 7-8-1 on the season and unable to reach the Packers, if Green Bay wins their final two games, of course.
The Packers find themselves playing their best football of the season right now. Over the last six games, the offense is averaging 26.5 points per contest, led by a mostly healthy offensive line, a strong run game, and Christian Watson’s emergence. The special teams unit has continued to improve all season, and the defense is also playing well, coming off a second-half performance in Miami where they held an explosive Dolphins offense scoreless–keeping Jaylen Waddle and Tyrkee Hill in check those final two quarters.
But before the Packers can enjoy an improbable playoff berth, they must take care of their own business. Up first is Minnesota, who has a high-powered offense of their own, led by Justin Jefferson. Slowing Jefferson, along with the other Vikings’ playmakers, begins with the Packers generating consistent pressure on Kirk Cousins, something that has been challenging for Green Bay this season, especially without Rashan Gary. However, this is a Vikings’ interior offensive line that is very much susceptible to a strong pass rush. It will be important that Kenny Clark, Jarran Reed, and Devonte Wyatt are able to capitalize. Another key aspect will be limiting the number of coverage breakdowns, something that often happened in Week 1.
On offense, the Packers will have their preferred starting five on the offensive line and face a Vikings run defense that ranks below average in yards per rush allowed as well as DVOA. Their secondary has also been prone to giving up big plays off of play-action, while overall, they are allowing the second-most yards per pass attempt.
I would expect a lot of cover-2 from Minnesota in order to take away the big passing play, along with forcing Aaron Rodgers to be patient while putting together long scoring drives.
Next week, the Packers are back at home to take on a Detroit Lions team that will play hard for four quarters. Like Minnesota, they have the ability to put up points but have also given up a lot on defense as well.