Packers Aaron Rodgers capitalizes against blitz heavy Dolphins

Coming off back-to-back MVP seasons, we, for the most part, haven’t seen Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers at that level this year. He simply hasn’t been as good, but the play around him hasn’t either, with a steep learning curve at the receiver position that included wrong routes and dropped passes, along with inconsistency up front as the offensive line dealt with a lot of movement.

However, where Rodgers has consistently been quite good this season is when he’s been blitzed, and we saw that again on Christmas Day against Miami.

Rodgers’ entered Sunday’s contest having been blitzed on 112 of his dropbacks. He has 106 pass attempts, completing 70 of them — or 66% — at 7.6 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns to two interceptions. To add some context to those figures, his overall completion rate is 64.9%, and he’s averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. Rodgers’ turnover-worthy play rate, according to PFF ($$), is actually at it’s lowest when he’s been blitzed. So, in short, Rodgers is blitzed; he’s actually been at his best by these metrics.

This played into the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers’ hands against Miami, who is a heavy-blitzing team. Coming into Week 16, the Dolphins ranked seventh in blitz rate and fourth in the total number of blitzes. That aggressive approach continued, with Miami blitzing Rodgers on 26 of his dropbacks per ESPN Stats & Info, which was the most times that he’s been blitzed in a game since Week 15 of the 2017 season.

Overall, Rodgers was alright against Miami, with a rough first half followed by an improved second half. However, of Rodgers’ 238 total passing yards, 192 came while being blitzed, as did his one touchdown pass. This was the second-most yards Rodgers has thrown for when blitzed over the last five seasons.

Success against the blitz begins with the offensive line picking up the extra defender, or at least slowing him down, which the Packers were able to do for the most part, even with Yosh Nijman sidelined. The Green Bay offensive line was credited by PFF with only giving up five pressures to Miami.

Assuming that pressure is picked up by the offensive line, Rodgers also has one less defender in coverage to worry about, and this was already a Dolphins secondary that came into the game ranked 26th in pass defense by DVOA, which Green Bay, like others before them, was able to take advantage of.

When you have a veteran quarterback of Rodgers’ caliber, who more often than not likely knows where the blitz is coming from and who he should get the ball to quickly in those instances, it’s a simple game of pitch and catch for him—as illustrated by his numbers.

This, again, goes to show the importance of defenses being able to create pressure with their defensive front. Like every other quarterback, Rodgers’ efficiency goes down when under duress, but being able to create that pressure without blitzing leaves an additional defender in coverage.

Or if you’re a defensive coordinator, even if not getting home, perhaps your best bet is still not to blitz. As Aaron Nagler of Cheesehead TV pointed out, Rodgers told the broadcast crew how frustrating it was playing the Rams because they refused to come out of their two-high look—forcing Rodgers to be patient and take what was available. Los Angeles was able to contain the Green Bay passing game with this approach.

Over their next two games, the Packers will face Minnesota, who doesn’t blitz often with Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter generating plenty of pressure on their own, although the Packers’ offensive line play has greatly improved since Week 1 when these teams last met. Slowing these two players will be a must. The following week is the Detroit Lions, who blitz frequently, which could be a positive for Green Bay.