Packers run game will have to be the catalyst vs. Eagles

As Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said on Wednesday when meeting with reporters, this Philadelphia Eagles defense is a “complete unit,” and much of their success begins with the play of their defensive front.

It’s no secret that if the Packers are going to move the ball with any regularity against this defense, they have to be effective on the ground. This is pretty much the case every week; however, this is especially true against the Eagles.

Philadelphia enters Sunday’s game with the second-best run defense by DVOA, but at times, they’ve been susceptible in this area as of late without 6’6″ – 336 pound Jordan Davis in the middle as he has been sidelined with an injury.

After giving up 40 rushing yards on the opening drive to Jonathan Taylor and Indianapolis, the Eagles buckled down and held him to just 35 yards for the remainder of the game. In Week 8, Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris ran the ball just 14 times as they were playing from behind but did total 82 yards on just 14 attempts.

The following week, Damien Peirce of the Texans rushed for 139 yards on 5.1 yards per rush. Then against the Commanders, the Eagles held Washington to only 3.1 yards per rush, but Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson totaled 130 yards because of their willingness to stick with the run game.

This is going to be incredibly important for the Packers. Running the ball won’t be easy against this Eagles’ defensive front, but consistency is a must, and can still lead to an effective run game, even when not picking up huge gains regularly. For a Philadelphia defense that utilizes a lot of two-high looks, running the ball is likely the best way to go about picking up yards.

As we saw in the fourth quarter against Tennessee, even with the recent emergence of Christian Watson and the return of Randall Cobb, this passing game isn’t good enough to carry this offense on its own. Also, the Philadelphia pass rush is one of the best in football and giving them more predictable opportunities to rush the quarterback will put the Packers’ offensive line in some difficult situations.

The run game for Green Bay will open up the rest of the offense, as we saw against Dallas. Matt LaFleur is able to go deeper into his playbook when the run game is working with play concepts and designs building off each other. We’ve also seen that when the Packers get pass-heavy, they tend to drift further away from core LaFleur concepts such as playing under center, bunch sets, and motion, among other key elements.

A prominent run game sets up play-action as well, where Aaron Rodgers has been efficient, completing 66% of his passes at 7.7 yards per attempt while also providing shot-play opportunities–an element that this offense has been missing without Watson. Recently, we saw Taylor Heinicke and the Commanders average 8.4 yards per attempt off play-action against the Eagles per PFF ($$).

It’s also going to be vital that the Packers give themselves manageable third-down situations — again, putting themselves in obvious passing downs simply won’t be a recipe for success — and a lot of that begins with picking up four or five yards on first down. Overall, the Packers have been a slightly above-average third-down offense this season despite their struggles.

Running the ball certainly doesn’t guarantee success against Philadelphia, but it will increase the Packers’ chances of it. It’s also not as if Aaron Jones needs perfect conditions to be successful. He is currently averaging 5.4 yards per rush while being one of the best in the NFL at forcing missed tackles and picking up yards after contact.

The Dallas game is a great example of what this offense can be when the run game is effective. But on the flip side, when it’s not working — or the Packers abandon it — we get the Titans game.