Green Bay Packers offense abysmal on fourth downs this season
By Paul Bretl
Given the overall performance of the Green Bay Packers offense, it’s not surprising that their third-down success rate has taken a step back this season–just like everything else. However, while down in comparison to their previous seasons, the Packers are still an above-average third-down team in 2022, converting 41.3% of their opportunities, which ranks 14th.
But what doesn’t make sense is how they’ve gone from being a top-10 fourth-down team the previous seasons to ranking tied for 30th. What makes this stat even more odd is that they have proven to be quite capable on third downs.
The Packers have gone for it on fourth down 18 times this season and have moved the chains just four times–or 22%. For reference, Green Bay has been pretty consistent in this area over Matt LaFleur’s first three seasons, ranking either eighth or ninth overall, and their success rate ranges from 56% to 61%.
Green Bay’s average yards to go in these situations is 3.17, and their play selection consists of 13 passes, with Aaron Rodgers completing only two of them, to five rushes.
I’m sure that just like with many of the other issues that the Packers are experiencing on offense, a lack of execution is one of the big reasons behind their fourth-down failures. On top of that, there may be some bad luck as well, given that there is really no alignment between their third and fourth down success rates.
With that said, play-calling likely plays a key factor as well. Fourth down has become a more obvious passing situation for the Packers, which adds a degree of predictability for the defense, and for a Green Bay offense that needs all of the help that it can get, this doesn’t do them any favors.
These situations have also turned into Rodgers and the offense trying to create big plays with the defense playing closer to the line of scrimmage rather than simply trying to pick up the few yards they need to move the chains. According to Stathead, of Rodgers’ 13 pass attempts, eight were qualified as “deep” throws. Then there was the one in Detroit that went to offensive tackle David Bakhtiari instead of a receiver or tight end.
In these must-have-it situations, teams often turn to their playmakers. However, Aaron Jones has only four touches on 18 attempts, two of which went for first downs, and he has zero targets in the passing game on fourth down.
It’s a lack of playmaking, along with questionable play-calls and decision-making. When a team is this bad at something, it’s a little bit of everything that contributes to the problem.
As I wrote about recently, there are dozens of things that have gone wrong for the Green Bay Packers offense this season, and their inability on fourth downs is just another item on what has become a very long list of issues.