Deep ball a Giant issue for Green Bay Packers offense

There have been countless times throughout the Aaron Rodgers’ era with the Green Bay Packers where you could tell through your television screen that he was looking for a shot play as he stood in the pocket. And whether it ended up happening, there was a feeling that, more often than not, he was going to connect.

However, that isn’t the case for Rodgers and the Packers offense this season.

On passes of over 20-yards, Rodgers has been below average, to put it simply. For starters, the Packers as an offense hadn’t taken as many shot plays through the first four games, with Rodgers’ 17 attempts ranking 16th. Instead, we’ve often seen the run game and quick passes to set up manageable third downs take precedence over the deep ball–which they should.

Prior to Sunday’s game against New York, Rodgers was 6/17 on downfield pass attempts with a touchdown and an interception. He ranked 19th in completions as well as passer rating and 24th in yards per attempt with just 10.4, according to PFF ($$).

As I wrote following the Packers’ loss to the Giants, Green Bay put up 20 points in the first half behind their run and quick passing games. In the second half, however, the Giants played with heavier boxes out of a cover-1 look, daring Rodgers to push the ball downfield and deviating from what was working.

Well, as we know, Rodgers did just that. There was a stretch of four consecutive plays over two possessions that included three deep balls, all of which fell incomplete, along with a crucial three-and-out after the New York offense had just put together an eight-minute scoring drive.

According to Next Gen Stats, Rodgers was 0-6 against the Giants on passes of 20-plus yards, the most downfield attempts without a completion that he has had since 2016. This was also a Giants defense that has been very good against the deep pass, allowing a completion rate of just 22.2% this season, the seventh-best rate in the NFL.

Whether it be Rodgers’ inaccuracy, not being on the same page with the receivers, or, more than likely, all the above, the Packers’ downfield passing attack isn’t much of an attack at all.

While becoming too reliant on the shot play played a role in the Packers’ sputtering second-half offense, it’s not as if they can abandon it either. In fact, some of the issues that they are experiencing on these type of plays are that they don’t have a true deep threat that defenses are concerned about.

Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson have the ability to win downfield, but not with the way they are being utilized within the offense. With the Giants’ defensive approach in the second half, it’s clear that they weren’t terribly concerned about getting beat over the top.

This leads to the field shrinking and being more congested for the offense, with more players closer to the line of scrimmage. This, in turn, can make running the ball and the quick passing game more challenging.

While Green Bay needs the threat of the deep ball to keep defenses honest, it’s not something that can be forced, either, which was the case on Sunday. The Giants tied the game and then eventually took the lead, and Rodgers tried to make it all up in one play–multiple times.

This is where the 2022 Packers’ offensive identity is in question. Sure, the Giants gave them the opportunity to push the ball downfield with their defensive alignments, but is that who this year’s Packers team is?

You can make a strong case that they aren’t. Green Bay has been at their best this season with a balanced attack, quick passes, and spreading the ball around–not to mention that for an offense in search of consistent playmaking, Aaron Jones provides that better than anyone, and during those downfield attempts in the third quarter, Rodgers and Matt LaFleur took the ball out of his hands.

Instead of letting the opponent dictate what the Packers do offensively, it should be the other way around, considering that they have the back-to-back MVP and one of the best playmaking running backs in the game, along with a good offensive line unit. However, the Packers can’t truly lean into this approach until they determine who they are this season.

Again, with all of that said, this isn’t to say that the Packers should abandon the deep ball. That would only hurt this offense, as I’ve already discussed. But Doubs and Watson need to be used in that capacity more often as legitimate threats who can take the tops off defenses, and those attempts need to happen organically throughout the game while leaning heavily into their run and quick passing games to move the ball.