Packers face tough test against Giants situationally sound defense

Although the first few games for the Green Bay Packers haven’t always gone smoothly, for the most part, they’ve performed well situationally–getting stops on third down and in the red zone when needed, and on the flip side, converting in those situations on offense, particularly at key moments.

Offensively, however, that will be put to the test against the New York Giants, who, like the Packers’ defense, has been very good this season on third downs and in the red zone.

Through four games, the Giants’ defense ranks second in opponent third down success rate — behind only the Packers — allowing a first down on just 29.4% of third downs.

In the red zone, they are allowing 3.5 trips per game, which ranks 17th, but have buttoned things up inside the 20, allowing a touchdown only 35.7% of the time–once again, good for the second-best mark in the NFL.

The Packers, meanwhile, rank ninth in third-down efficiency on offense and just above league average in red zone offense at 13th while ranking ninth in red zone trips per game per Team Rankings.

Overall this is a Giants defense that has been good at limiting the run between the tackles — although opponents have found success outside — and they lead the NFL in blitz rate. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale also does a very good job of disguising coverages with a lot of late movement, along with playing a mixture of man and zone.

For a Packers offense that has struggled to move the ball at times, early down success is going to be a must against New York. On third down conversions this season, according to Stathead, the Packers’ average yard to gain is 4.6. On failed attempts, they are averaging 7.06 yards to move the sticks.

This begins with being able to move the ball on the ground, which, as already mentioned, may be challenging inside, as well as leaning on the quick passing game to set up third and manageable situations–something the Packers have leaned on heavily this season.

Led by Aaron Jones, the Packers offense has generated 18 rushes of 10-plus yards, tied for the fifth-most this season. Success on the ground also reduces the pass rush’s impact and opens up the playbook for LaFleur.

"“If you look at New York’s defense situationally, they’re one of the best in ball both in the red zone and on third downs,” said LaFleur on Friday via Packers.com. “The running game can elevate some of the stress that gets put on you in those situations if you’re not running the ball effectively.”"

In the quick passing game, Aaron Rodgers has been very efficient, completing 82% of his 78 attempts while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt with six touchdowns to one interception, according to PFF ($$). With how often the Giants blitz, the quick passing game may end up being a must in that regard as well, in order to get the ball out of Rodgers’ hands before the pressure gets home.

The Green Bay pass-catchers also rank among the best in total YAC, helping to turn those quick passes into big plays. With fewer downfield attempts and connections this season, the Packers still have the second-most big passing plays in large part because of their YAC ability.

Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard have also been Rodgers’ go-to options in these situations, specifically on third downs, combining for nine receptions on 12 targets, including nine first downs and 13.3 yards per catch. The continued emergence of Robert Tonyan will be important in the red zone as well.

Creating manageable third-down situations or being effective in the red zone is nothing new or groundbreaking–it’s on the to-do list every week. However, if the Packers put themselves behind the sticks on Sunday, a punt or field goal attempt is likely going to follow against this Giants’ defense.