Green Bay Packers offense takes on blitz heavy Patriots defense
By Paul Bretl
The only way you can truly know what a Bill Belichick-coached defense is going to do is by looking into a crystal ball. Unfortunately, I’m pretty sure the Green Bay Packers’ crystal ball is broken.
One of the many elements that makes facing this New England defense so challenging is the unknown. Just because the Patriots have put something on tape in previous weeks doesn’t mean that’s what they’ll do the following game. In fact, it could be quite different.
However, one tendency that the Green Bay Packers should be prepared for is a blitz-heavy game from New England.
The Patriots didn’t blitz all that often against Pittsburgh, but they did send blitzes 28% of the time against Miami and nearly 40% of the time against Baltimore. Overall, the Patriots rank fifth in blitz rate this season.
One would think that the Patriots’ first priority on Sunday will be limiting Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in the run game. For one, it allows them to blitz more by putting the Packers’ offense in obvious passing situations and making them one-dimensional, along with also shrinking Matt LaFleur’s playbook.
But in addition to all of that, this is still a Patriots defense under Belichick that relies heavily on man coverage, cover-1 specifically, and if the pass rush isn’t getting home quick enough, especially against a quarterback of Aaron Rodgers’ caliber, this New England secondary could be picked apart.
Many defenses in today’s NFL — including the Packers — play cover-2 to prevent offenses from generating big passing plays. Recently, when speaking with the media, Rodgers said he would “love to see some one-high (cover-1) stuff,” to help opening things up in the passing game.
Leaning heavily on the blitz against Rodgers and the Packers is a bit of a double-edged sword for New England. On one hand, when effective, the secondary doesn’t have to cover as long, and Rodgers’ efficiency, like any quarterback, dips drastically when under pressure.
However, one the flip side, Rodgers has been incredibly effective when blitzed this season, completing 18 of 22 passes for two touchdowns at at 8.7 yards per attempt, according to PFF ($$), while getting the ball out quickly with an average time to throw of just 2.35-seconds—this has allowed him to avoid the pass rush.
In addition to the run game, the Packers’ quick passing attack has been the catalyst for offensive success this season. As Rodgers told reporters on Wednesday, it doesn’t require the offensive line to maintain their blocks for as long, it has helped set up third and manageable situations, which has then often led to conversions, and it puts the Packers’ pass catchers in position to pick up YAC—which they are the best in the NFL at through three games.
Last week against Tampa Bay, we saw the Packers’ offensive line pick up those blitzes well for the most part, and on those plays, Green Bay was able to capitalize early on with the quick passing game. When the offense began to sputter, the Bucs were blitzing less and instead did a better job of taking away those quick throws.
This is the balance that the Patriots will have to strike against Green Bay. If Jones and Dillon get going, it doesn’t much matter what New England is doing in the secondary. However, by trying to limit the run game or creating pressure through blitzing, they are leaving themselves very susceptible in the passing game, particularly in their man coverage scheme, if Rodgers has time.
The unknown that comes with facing Belichick could make all of this a moot point if he simply adjusts from what he’s been doing. But as LaFleur said, you have to make your “educated guess” when going up against New England in trying to game plan for what they’re going to do.
Over the years, cover-1 has been a staple of Belichick’s defense along with blitzing at a high rate this season—both of which could benefit the Packers passing game if they can handle those blitzes well.