Behind Enemy Lines: Packers back home to face New England

The 2-1 Green Bay Packers are back home to take on the 1-2 New England Patriots. To help prepare you for this matchup, we are once again going Behind Enemy Lines.

In this week’s edition, Fran Brown of Musket Fire was kind enough to answer a handful of questions to help provide us with some insight into this 2022 Patriots team. As always, I’ll share my thoughts along the way as well.

Will there be a noticeable difference in the game plan for the Patriots offense with either Mac Jones or Brian Hoyer at quarterback–and if so, how?

Fran: I don’t believe there will be a noticeable difference in the game plan this week, regardless of who is under center. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have always tried to take advantage of an opponent’s weakness, so if they feel that Green Bay’s weakness is on the ground, they’ll slant their game plan that way. Joe Judge mentioned yesterday that they like the way their offense is progressing, so they don’t want to necessarily shake things up.

When Hoyer had to replace Cam Newton in Kansas City two years ago, the only noticeable difference was that they did not run any designed runs for the quarterback. Jones and Hoyer are a lot more alike than Hoyer and Newton, so I don’t expect much change.

Thoughts: Regardless of who the quarterback is, I would expect the Patriots to lean on their running backs, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, who have shared the workload and are averaging 4.8 yards per rush as a duo. As Fran mentioned, Bill Belichick will find an opponent’s weakness and attack it,  which for the Packers, is their run defense, allowing 4.9 yards per carry.

Establishing and finding some success on the ground will be a must for the Patriots. Otherwise, if they become one-dimensional and pass-heavy against this Packers’ pass rush, Green Bay should be able to generate a lot of pressure and sack opportunities, not to mention some possible turnover chances as well. Leaning on the run game will also keep Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines and eat some clock if successful.

What is the strength of this Patriots team?

Fran: They got roughed up by Lamar Jackson last week (who hasn’t?), but the defense has been the strength of this team through three weeks. They held a very good offense in Miami to 13 points and followed that up with a strong effort in Pittsburgh. In the first half last week, the Patriots were able to sack Jackson four times and intercept him once before falling apart.

The pass rush has been consistent with Matthew Judon (3 sacks) and Deatrich Wise (4 sacks) providing pressure, and the coverage in the secondary has been good enough. The Patriots made an effort to get younger and faster on that side of the ball this year, and it seems to be paying off.

Thoughts: There are two things that we know the Packers want to do offensively this season–get the ball to Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon and utilizing the quick passing game to get them into more manageable third-down situations.

A balanced run-pass mix does wonders for the rest of the offense, such as allowing the offensive line to be the aggressor, it can also slow the pass rush, and it gives Matt LaFleur more flexibility as a play caller.

This season, Aaron Rodgers has gotten the ball out of his hands at the quickest rate of his career, according to PFF ($$), and he currently ranks 33rd in average depth of target. As already mentioned, it sets up shorter third-down attempts and allows the Packers’ pass catchers to pick up YAC, something that, as a team, this group has been very good at.

In the first half against the Bucs, Green Bay was very good at pick up 5-6 yards on early downs, which led to them starting the game 5-for-7 on third downs. But in the second half, Tampa adjusted by playing more man and blitzing less often, and the Packers struggled to move the ball on first and second downs, which led to a number of third and longs followed by a lot of punts.

If we know that these two things are what the Packers want to do, then we also know that Belichik will want to take those things away. So the big question becomes, if he does, what do the Packers pivot to?

What would you consider the Patriots’ weakness?

So far, the passing attack has been the weakness of this team as they adjust to a new offensive system after the departure of Josh McDaniels. Really, it’s been a mess since training camp, and even before he got hurt, it seemed that Mac Jones was regressing in year two.

After three weeks, his passer rating is only better than that of Justin Fields. Jones has been staring down receivers, and his decision-making has been subpar. It hasn’t helped that this group of receivers have struggled to create separation. I don’t expect much change with Brian Hoyer at the helm.

Thoughts: The Patriots’ top-three receivers in terms of yards this season are Nelson Agholor, DeVante Parker, and Jakobi Meyers, with Agholor averaging over 16 yards per catch and Parker over 27. Mac Jones has also been very willing to push the ball downfield with 20 passes of 20-plus yards this season, which is the most in the NFL. Will we see Brian Hoyer take a similar approach?

This Packers defense plays cover-2, which is designed to limit the big passing play, and while New England — at least under Jones — has shown they are willing to take those shots, but the recipe for slowing the Patriots’ passing game begins with limiting their ability on the ground, as already discussed.

Green Bay ranks ninth this season in pressure rate, and Jones has really struggled when blitzed and when under pressure. Meanwhile, Hoyer isn’t a very mobile quarterback. The Packers rank first in third-down defense this season, succeeding in large part because of their ability to put the opposing offense in obvious passing situations.

As of now, we do not know if Jaire Alexander will play after leaving Sunday’s game with a groin injury. He was a limited participant on Wednesday. If he can’t go, we will again see Keisean Nixon in the slot. He was thrown at often by Tom Brady, but held his own, limiting yards after the catch.

Who is one player on offense and one on defense that Packers fans may not be as familiar with but could make an impact in Sunday’s game?

Fran: Fans might be more familiar with players on the offensive side of the ball, as the Patriots do have a lot of veterans at the skill positions. Maybe second-year back Rhamondre Stevenson is a guy fans might not know as well but who has been integral to the offense. Like the Packers, the Patriots have a one-two punch at running back with Stevenson and Damien Harris.

Stevenson came on at the end of last year, is a physical runner, and has become more of a threat in the passing game since former Packer Ty Montgomery went down with an injury.

Defensively, safety Kyle Dugger is a guy who has made huge strides since coming into the league out of Division 2 Lenoir-Rhyne. He has been especially good against the run, so I imagine he will be key against the Packers. He missed last week’s game with a knee injury, and it showed as the Ravens rushed for 188 yards.

Thoughts: On 29 rushing attempts this season, Stevenson is averaging 5.0 yards per carry on 29 attempts, including 6.1 against Baltimore in Week 3. New England has also gotten him involved in the passing game, catching seven of nine passes but only at 4.9 yards per catch.

Dugger has spent the bulk of his playing time this season in the box to help against the run, which should be the expectation on Sunday. Dugger has three stops, no missed tackles, and he ranks third among all safeties in PFF’s run defense grade. In coverage, he has allowed two receptions on four targets for seven yards.

What is your score prediction, and how do you see this game playing out?

Fran: I didn’t feel good about this game prior to the injury to Jones, so I think the Packers will handle their business in this one. However, I do think the Patriots will be able to stay in the game because of their defense and the running game. I don’t expect them to ask Hoyer to make plays, so I can see them using the ground game to control the clock and limit turnovers.

Defensively, I think they can handle Green Bay’s receivers, and it will be a question of whether or not they can stop the run. Also, you just know Aaron Rodgers is going to make a play or two. I’ll go Packers 21 Patriots 13

Thoughts: I see this game playing out similarly. The Packers are the more talented team, but the offense is still trying to find consistency while they will be facing an always challenging Bill Belichick defense–which will keep things close. While I don’t expect the Green Bay offense to struggle as much as they did in the second half of last week’s game, it will be the defense leading the way, making it difficult for New England to put up points.

Packers 17 – Patriots 10