As I wrote prior to the Green Bay Packers Week 3 matchup with Tampa Bay, this offense has been among the best in generating big plays this season, whether that be on the ground or through the air.
Entering Sunday’s game, the Packers were tied for second in total big plays, with 10 coming on the ground and eight through the air. However, very few of those pass plays came from Aaron Rodgers pushing the ball down the field—the Packers have just been very effective at picking up yards after the catch. In fact, there haven’t even been that many attempts so far.
According to PFF ($$), Rodgers has just nine downfield pass attempts this season, or passes that travel at least 20 yards. Out of 31 eligible quarterbacks, that ranks 22nd. Of those nine attempts, Rodgers has completed three of them for 101 yards, which ranks 21st.
For some added context, Rodgers had the 10th most deep ball pass attempts in 2021, and he’s currently on pace for only 51 attempts after totaling 73 a season ago.
Overall, Rodgers has relied heavily on the check downs or quick passes. His average depth of target is only 5.6 yards, which ranks last in the NFL through three games. Kyler Murray is second to last at 6.4 yards, and Rodgers averaged 8.1 yards last season.
As far as why this is happening, as always, there are likely a number of reasons. However, one of those reasons isn’t because the Packers don’t have the personnel to do so. Christian Watson possesses elite speed, which we saw on the opening play of the season, while Romeo Doubs was one of the most effective deep ball receivers during the 2020 college football season.
Perhaps the biggest reason is that the Packers are continually seeing cover-2 looks, which at its core, is designed to take away the big passing play. Even the Packers’ defense under Joe Barry runs this look often.
The Packers have also been fairly conservative with their usage of Doubs and Watson, getting them designed touches closer to the line of scrimmage. Out of necessity, we saw Doubs utilized more in all three levels of the field against Tampa Bay, and hopefully, that will continue.
With that said, in part, Rodgers just needs to let it rip as well. We all know how important having that trust is with him, and there could be some hesitancy in working with the young receivers.
We also saw Rodgers not navigating the pocket all that confidently against Minnesota, while he appeared to not be seeing the field well against Tampa Bay, who has one of the better defenses in the NFL. Hopefully, these are two areas that will improve with Elgton Jenkins and David Bakhtiari back in the mix.
Green Bay has also been leaning on the quick passing game and RPOs early on. Per PFF, Rodgers’ average time to throw of 2.53-seconds is the seventh-fastest rate this season. That, of course, makes it a nearly impossible task to go deep when the ball is out that quickly.
For this offense to be firing on all cylinders, that deep element has to be there–and not only because it provides that home run ability, but it also opens up other concepts and opportunities for other pass catchers.
Look back at the Packers’ playoff loss to San Francisco in January as a prime example of what can happen when there isn’t a vertical threat. Without Marquez Valdes-Scantling to worry about, the 49ers shrunk the field because they weren’t concerned about getting beat over the top, which made moving the ball through the air all the more difficult as the field became very condensed.
Even with terrific deep threats in Watson and Doubs, opposing defenses could use this strategy if they don’t believe Rodgers will attempt to push the ball downfield–something he hasn’t done often through three games.
In the grand scheme of an NFL season, there is still a long ways to go, and this is something that could turn around quite quickly for the Packers. But so far, with the question marks at receiver, Rodgers has seemingly been a bit reluctant to push the ball downfield. Given his talent, there’s no reason for that to be the case, especially if this offense hopes to take a big step forward at some point this season.