Behind Enemy Lines: Packers face challenging road test in Tampa Bay

Before Sunday’s game begins, we go Behind Enemy Lines, taking a closer look at the Green Bay Packers Week 3 opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

To help provide us with some insight, Brandon Thornton of The Pewter Plank was kind enough to answer five of my questions. I also provided my own thoughts along the way as well.

What is the biggest strength of the 2022 Buccaneers team?

Brandon: The biggest strength of this year’s Buccaneers team at this point has been far and away their defense. It looks better than the unit that shut down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV. They basically won both games by themselves and resemble the great defenses of the Tony Dungy era.

Thoughts: Basically, pick an important statistical category on defense, whether it be points or yards allowed, turnovers generated, third down defense, pressures created, and you will find Tampa Bay at the top of those lists. As Matt LaFleur said, the Packers offense faces a great challenge on Sunday.

Any sort of success for the Packers begins with moving the ball on the ground. This will prevent them from relying too heavily on the pass, which in the past has made for some ugly games, and it also allows the offensive line to be the aggressor without the defense being able to pin their ears back every play. This, in turn, also helps Aaron Rodgers in the pocket and provides LaFleur with flexibility as a play-caller.

The path to victory may include a well-balanced attack, but that doesn’t mean it will be easy against the Buccaneers’ defensive front. One of the big questions I have entering this game is whether the Packers have the discipline to stick with the run even if it’s tough sledding or they fall behind. As already mentioned, in these instances in previous games, they abandon the run quickly, become one-dimensional, and often lose by a lot.

What would you say the weakness is of this year’s Bucs team?

Brandon: The strength is also a weakness. Much like the Tony Dungy era, the offense hasn’t caught up with the defense, and when a defense is forced to win games essentially just themselves, that can cause problems down the road. The biggest reason for that is the battered and bruised offensive line. Fortunately, the quarterback this time is Tom Brady, as opposed to Trent Dilfer or Shaun King.

Thoughts: Everyone will be talking about and watching Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers closely, but it may be the running games for both teams that determine this outcome. The Bucs’ have question marks around the wide receiver position just as the Packers do, with Julio Jones and Chris Godwin already ruled out while Mike Evans is serving a suspension.

Through two games, Tampa has leaned more heavily on the run game, ranking in the top-10 in rushing attempts, according to Team Rankings, with Leonard Fournette ranking fifth among all running backs in rushing yards. Although the Bucs haven’t been a top rushing team in terms of yards per carry, the Packers have really struggled to defend the run, allowing 5.6 yards per carry and missing far too many tackles along the way.

Who is one player on offense and one on defense that Packers fans may not be as familiar with but could have a big impact on Sunday’s game?

Brandon: In today’s statistical, analytical, and fantasy football-obsessed culture we find ourselves in, it’s hard to find an offensive player that’s under the radar. So we’ll go to the trenches and look at center Robert Hainsey who has filled in nicely for the injured Ryan Jensen. Obviously, he isn’t Jensen, so if he can perform well, the Bucs offense should be able to function.

As for defense, with Akiem Hicks expected to miss a month, his starter opposite side William Gholston will have to step up to aid world-beater Vita Vea in the middle and, ultimately, the pass-rush. Gholston is a solid player but doesn’t always get the recognition he deserves.

Thoughts: Through two games this season at center, Robert Hainsey hasn’t given up a sack and has allowed only three pressures. He is also PFF’s sixth-highest-graded center in run-blocking. He has, however, only 31 career snaps prior to the 2022 season.

Hainsey matched up with Kenny Clark will be a key matchup to watch. Clark has been on a tear through two games, and as Brandon mentions in the following question, the best way to slow the Bucs’ offense is by pressuring Brady up the middle.

With Gholston, he has played 54 defensive snaps this season, per PFF ($$), and has one pressure recorded while primarily lined up in the B-gap. Gholston isn’t too far removed from a 2020 season in which he logged 56 pressures and was one of PFF’s top interior pass rushers.

If an opposing team is going to beat Tampa Bay, what does that path to victory look like?

Brandon: I touched on it earlier, as have many at this point, but to beat the Bucs, you gotta put pressure on Brady up the middle. It’ll mess up the timing with his new-look receiver group (now without Mike Evans) and frustrate him, and he’s already starting to look like the surly curmudgeon Dan Marino of the 90s out there. The secondary can also be had, but that’s only if the quarterback has time to throw. The pass-rush of the Bucs has been lethal, so that should be priority number one.

Thoughts: One of my concerns about this matchup is that if the Packers sit in their standard cover-2 zone defense, Brady will have no problem getting passes off quickly for easy completions and stringing together 10-plus play drives on their way to the red zone. With Joe Barry’s defense, he wants to protect against the big pass play, but we all know Brady has no issues being patient and taking what the defense gives him.

In an effort to counter this, I would really like to see the Packers dial up some blitzes, something they are yet to do this season, in order to get after Brady. Even as good as the Packers’ pass rush is, if Brady is getting the ball out in 2.13-seconds, which is his average time in a clean pocket, that’s almost too quick for the pass rush to get home without some help. Blitzing Brady doesn’t guarantee success, but if he’s getting the ball out cleanly on a regular basis, it’s worth a try.

Prediction time!

Brandon: This game will be back and forth, and Brady tends to step up when faced with a top-tier quarterback competition. The Packers’ offensive line is also banged up, which should allow them to get to Rodgers a bit. I’d expect the Bucs to win a close game by a score of about 23-21, with Leonard Fournette having a decent game with all the attention being put on the quarterbacks. Despite everything I’ve said, it’s still Tom Brady, and GOATs do GOAT things.

Thoughts: Unfortunately, I have to agree. This is a game where I see the running games and defensive play being the determining factors. I’m not confident that the Packers can slow the Bucs’ run game well enough, and while I believe Green Bay found their recipe for success last week on offense, are they able to stick with it when rushing yards are hard to come by? In previous games, they haven’t. Also, for whatever reason, Raymond James Stadium has not been kind to Rodgers.

Packers 13 – Bucs 17