Behind Enemy Lines: Packers attempt to bounce back vs. Bears

The Green Bay Packers are looking to bounce back on both sides of the ball against a Chicago Bears team that is hoping to pull off another upset.

To help provide us with some insight into this 2022 Chicago Bears team, Vinnie Parise of Da Windy City was kind enough to answer a handful of questions. I also provided my thoughts along the way as well.

1. What is the strength of this 2022 Bears team that Packers fans should know about?

Vinnie: The strength of the 2022 Chicago Bears is effort and discipline. So far in the preseason and week one, they have been a team that works hard not to make mistakes. They aren’t as talented as the opponent, but they have been smarter so far.

Thoughts: The Packers are the more talented team, and if they are able to get up early, it’ll be important that they keep their foot on the gas so that the Bears don’t play themselves back into the game.

We’ve seen this on several occasions during the Matt LaFleur era, where Green Bay gets conservative, and the opponent is able to make a comeback. Late last season, the Packers went into halftime against Cleveland up by two scores but put up only three points in the second half. Earlier in the year, Green Bay was up 17-0 on San Francisco but escaping that game with a win required a last-second field goal by Mason Crosby.

2. What are the early impressions of new head coach Matt Eberflus? Any thoughts on offensive coordinator Luke Getsy?

Vinnie: Everything from question one seems to be because of Matt Eberflus. The attitude is already different from the previous regime, so that is a step in the right direction! If that continues when the team adds more talent, they could end up becoming a good football team.

As for Luke Getsy, the Bears’ offense was awful in the monsoon during the first half. However, it picked up in the second half and did just enough. His perception will be based on the development of Justin Fields (and the offense) this year.

Thoughts: The LaFleur-led Green Bay Packers have gone up against Eberflus once before when he was the defensive coordinator in Indianapolis during the 2020 season. The Packers put up 31 points in what ended as a loss, but they were held to only three points in the second half.

As I wrote recently, this is a Bears defensive front that no longer has Akiem Hicks or Khalil Mack, and in order for the Green Bay offense to get back on track, they’ll need to recommit to the run game. This past Sunday, the 49ers averaged 4.8 yards per carry against Chicago, although it’s hard to have any concrete takeaways from that game given the weather.

As far as facing Getsy, this should be another familiar opponent for the Packers’ defense, although that didn’t do much for them against the Vikings. Similarly to Matt LaFleur’s system, I’d expect some motion, wide zone runs, and play-action.

3. What are the expectations for Justin Fields this season, and how did he look in Week 1?

Vinnie: Justin Fields has to prove this year that he’s an NFL quarterback. If he doesn’t, the Bears may move off him quickly. You need a quarterback in this league in order to win. So far, there is reason to be excited!

In the first half of week one’s game, he was brutal, and in the second half, he made some really nice plays and got the win.

Thoughts: Last week, Fields finished the game completing eight of 17 passes for 121 yards with two touchdowns and an interception–although, once again, conditions were not ideal, and Fields did bounce back in the second half by completing five of eight passes for 102 yards. He also ran for 28 yards on seven attempts per PFF ($$).

Expect the Packers to once again play a lot of zone coverage–for one reason, it’s what they do under Joe Barry, but that will also make it more challenging for Fields to pick up yardage with his legs. The Packers’ defensive front will also be going up against a Bears offensive line that allowed Fields to be pressured on 43.5% of his dropbacks in Week 1, which was the fourth-highest rate.

What would you consider the weakness of this 2022 Bears team?

Vinnie: They are not talented enough. They might win some games with their discipline and effort (as they did in week one), but you need to be talented over a 17-game schedule. That will hurt them at times. The offense simply doesn’t have enough weapons yet.

Thoughts: The Bears have experienced a ton of roster turnover under new GM Ryan Poles as they look to reshape their team. In fact, on this year’s 53-man roster, only 19 players are from the previous regime.

They are clearly hitting the reset button in 2022 with only $7.3 million in cap space at the moment, a lot of which is the result of dead cap from moving on from some big contracts. Next year, however, Chicago has a league-high $107.76 million in available cap space, according to Over the Cap. For some context, the Patriots are in second with $58.79 million in 2023 cap space.

The end result of these moves and looking ahead to 2023 is, as Vinnie said, a roster that is limited, but one that does play hard.

5. Give us your prediction and why things will play out that way.

Vinnie: Aaron Rodgers certainly does own the Chicago Bears. He won’t for much longer, but he will get a win against them at home this weekend.

Green Bay didn’t look amazing in week one, so they should be angry. I predict the Packers will edge out the Bears on national TV by a final score of 21-14.

Thoughts: The Packers are 9-0 in the regular season following a loss under Matt LaFleur and have an average margin of victory of 15.2 points. I expect both sides of the ball to bounce back, with there being a clear emphasis on getting Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon more involved while the Packers’ defensive front constantly puts pressure on Fields.

Packers 24 – Bears 17