More chances for Aaron Jones often yields better results for Packers
By Paul Bretl
A lot of things went wrong for the Green Bay Packers in Sunday’s loss to Minnesota; however, one of the more egregious errors was that Aaron Jones had only eight touches the entire game.
On only five carries, Jones totaled 49 yards or nearly 10 yards per rush. On three receptions, Jones recorded 27 yards. For an offense that was struggling to move the ball regularly and lacking playmaking ability, Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers forgot about their key playmaker.
Even during the Davante Adams era in Green Bay, one could argue that this Packers offense was at its best when Jones was heavily involved. After all, up until this most recent game against Minnesota, the Packers were 7-0 without Adams under LaFleur. The same can’t be said, however, for when Jones isn’t a factor.
More chances for Aaron Jones often yields better results for Green Bay Packers
Including the playoffs, the Packers have lost 14 games since LaFleur took over as the head coach — three of which Jones was inactive for — and in only two of those 14 games, Jones had 15 or more touches.
Of the 41 wins that the Packers have during that span, only nine have come when Jones had fewer than 15 touches, and of those nine, five were victories by 10 or more points. I can’t say for certain without going back and watching each of those nine games, but it is possible that these numbers are a bit skewed given the outcome, as Jones may not have played the entire game or had fewer pass-catching opportunities with the Packers up by double-digits.
Lastly, when Jones has at least 20 touches in a game, the Packers are 15-0. And not surprisingly, they are 0-2 when he touches the ball fewer than 10 times.
Admittedly, that 15-0 number could be a bit skewed as well with the Packers likely running the ball more often when they are winning, which results in more touches.
We all know that getting Jones the ball is a good thing–he’s a playmaker. Over his career, he is averaging an impressive 5.1 yards per carry. Jones has been one of the more difficult backs to bring down in recent years with his ability to get small to fit through running lanes, his vision, and overall elusiveness as a runner. He is also a hard runner and was one of the top running backs in 2021 in average yards after contract per PFF ($$).
Jones, of course, has been a very effective pass-catcher as well, with a nose for the end zone. He is nearing 1,500 career receiving yards while catching 73% of his passes and has 53 total touchdowns between carries and receptions.
Whether out of the backfield, in the slot, or out wide, Jones provides Rodgers with another trusted pass-catching target. But Jones’ presence alone can help open up opportunities for his teammates through the attention that he draws and the mismatches he’s able to create when put in motion.
We saw this on display in Sunday’s game against the Vikings. The Packers ran play-action to AJ Dillon up the middle while Jones, who was in motion, took the defenders with him on a clear-out route, which left a ton of space for Robert Tonyan on a crosser to pick up a 23-yard gain.
Ultimately, this is one of those causation verse correlation discussions. If Jones touches the ball 15 times, are the Packers guaranteed to win? No, unfortunately, they are not. But if Jones touches the ball at least 15 times, is it fair to say that the Packers’ chances of winning are increased? Absolutely.
In the game of football, there is very rarely ever one reason behind any result. Going back in time and giving Jones 15 touches in those losses may or may not change the outcome. But moving forward, the Packers — especially without Adams — can’t let Jones touch the ball as little as he did against the Vikings. Every single week, regardless of the opponent, he needs to be a focal point in this offense.
All stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference