Final Thoughts before Packers take on Vikings in Week 1 matchup
By Paul Bretl
Before the Green Bay Packers face the Minnesota Vikings to kick off their 2022 NFL season, as always, I have my quick thoughts on the matchup.
In this weekly article, I’ll be discussing anything and everything on my mind in regards to the Packers’ upcoming game. So let’s dive into week one.
– There are quite a few similarities between the Packers and Vikings from a schematic standpoint. Offensively, Kevin O’Connell and Matt LaFleur have overlapping systems after each spent time coaching under Sean McVay. Meanwhile, on defense, both Joe Barry and Ed Donatell utilize a version of Vic Fangio’s defense. For two teams that will know each other relatively well, whoever can execute best and make the better and quicker adjustments will likely win.
– Depending on what the makeup of the Packers’ offensive line is, we could see a similar-looking offense to a year ago with the quick passing game dominating. Due to numerous injuries up front in 2021, Aaron Rodgers got the ball out of his hands in an average time that was the quickest since his 2010 season. However, he was still pressured over 50 more times in comparison to 2020, according to PFF ($$).
– For what it’s worth, in 2021, Rodgers ranked first among QBs in completion percentage when throwing from a clean pocket but 34th out of 40 QBs when under pressure.
– If the Packers are without David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, I’d expect Yosh Nijman at left tackle, Jake Hanson at right guard, and Royce Newman at right tackle. This has been their go-to lineup all summer. I’m sure many will want to see Zach Tom, but OC Adam Stenavich has raved about Hanson all summer.
– Getting the running game going — which is easier said than done — and tight end chips, along with the quick passing game, will help Rodgers against a stout Minnesota defensive front.
– Having Robert Tonyan back in the mix is massive for the Packers offense. For one, there isn’t another tight end on the roster who can impact the passing game like he can, but also, Tonyan provides Rodgers with another needed trusted target.
– I’m excited to see how often Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are on the field together. Last season that happened on only 2% of the Packers’ total offensive plays, per Sharp Football, and when it did take place, it was quite predictable with Jones motioning across or out of the backfield. When these two were on the field together, the offense as a whole was quite efficient. At the end of the day, regardless of the position, get your playmakers on the field.
– Also, don’t forget about Jones in the passing game. He has finished second on the team in targets each season under Matt LaFleur.
– The Vikings’ offense is going to provide this Packers defense with a great test right away with all of their playmakers. O’Connell’s quarterback-friendly offense should also help Kirk Cousins remain efficient. However, a weak point that can be exploited is the interior offensive line. Disrupting the Minnesota offense begins with a strong push from the Packers’ interior defensive linemen.
– All eyes will be on the Packers’ receiver position, but the edge rusher depth is just as, if not more, concerning. The third and fourth edge rushers could see 20-25 snaps per game, and just as they were for much of last season, this group lacked consistency this summer. When Rashan Gary and Preston Smith aren’t on the field, I’ll be holding my breath a little bit.
– Speaking of Gary and Smith being off the field, last season, they often both took snaps off together. This year, I would like to see Joe Barry stager that more so at least one of them remains on the field more often than not.
– I would expect Jaire Alexander to follow around Justin Jefferson quite a bit.
– On those snaps when Alexander isn’t in the slot, who will be? Rasul Douglas took the bulk of those snaps this summer, so is he the default nickel corner? Or will it depend on matchups? Barry mentioned earlier this week that in addition to Douglas, we will also see Alexander, Keisean Nixon, and Darnell Savage in the slot as well.
– There are a lot of similar faces on this Packers defense compared to a season ago, but the addition of Quay Walker can have this group looking quite a bit different. His ability to fly around the field while being a reliable tackler will make him very valuable against the run. From what I saw during training camp at practices, running outside the tackle box on this defense was a tall task. Walker is also very capable in coverage, which will better allow the Packers to disguise what they’re doing defensively as they won’t have to rely nearly as often on a third safety.
– What do we see from the Packers receivers? I would expect Sammy Watkins to be Rodgers’ go-to option at the position. Randall Cobb will likely be used heavily in high-leverage situations, such as on third downs and in the red zone. Meanwhile, Romeo Doubs appears to be in store for a much larger role, with Allen Lazard likely sidelined. As good as Doubs was this summer, there were rookie miscues as well with dropped passes and wrong routes. As I wrote, he is one of my X-Factors because his skill-set, which allows him to line up out wide or inside and win at all three levels of the field is an element this offense needs. When it comes to Christian Watson, I anticipate him having a niche role as a deep threat and on gadget plays.
– Alright special teams, let’s just not have any major mistakes, okay?