Roster math an equation LaFleur and Packers have to solve

There are only 53 players on an NFL roster, and as Green Bay Packers GM Brian Gutekunst told reporters last week, ideally, teams want to keep the best 53 players, which makes sense.

Gutekunst would also add that the ability to elevate practice squad players provides the Packers with more positional flexibility, so they don’t feel that they have to keep a specific number of players at a certain position.

While this is certainly true, at the end of the day, rosters are capped at 53 players, and to make the math work out, there are a few positions where the Packers could choose to keep an extra player. However, if they do that, they’ll then be taking away from somewhere else.

Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers have never kept more than six receivers, and right now, there are six roster locks with Romeo Doubs, Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, Christian Watson, and Amari Rodgers. But Juwann Winfree is once again making plays, and importantly, he has caught the attention of Aaron Rodgers.

The tight end position has three roster locks in Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis, and Josiah Deguara. Tyler Davis also appears to be close to that group, despite a rough performance against San Francisco. There is also Dominique Dafney, who could force the Packers to keep a fifth tight end as he has the potential to be a core member of the special teams unit.

Keeping nine of 10 offensive linemen will be another decision to make. As of now, I believe they roster nine, but when David Bakhtiari returns, will the Packers want to keep Cole Van Lanen or Caleb Jones on the 53-man?

Defensively, the Packers face similar dilemmas along the interior defensive line, as well as at linebacker and safety.

Jack Heflin was the Packers’ sixth interior defensive lineman a season ago but rarely saw the field on defense or special teams. Heflin is once again making a roster push, but if he isn’t going to contribute much in either facet again, could that roster spot be better utilized elsewhere?

With linebacker, the decision is whether to roster four or five players at this position. Isaiah McDuffie appears to be the favorite for that fourth roster spot, but Ray Wilborn took the second most special teams snaps against the 49ers, according to PFF ($$), and as Bill Huber would point out during Monday’s practice, Wilborn was working with De’Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker in the top linebacker grouping.

Lastly is safety, where Vernon Scott seems locked into a roster spot, as does Shawn Davis, who has consistently been working with the second-team defense while even getting reps with the starters. But can Tariq Carpenter or Innis Gaines show enough special teams ability to make the Packers keep a fifth safety?

For what it’s worth, below is a look at how many players have been kept on the initial 53-man roster during each year of LaFleur’s tenure.

With all of these position battles, special teams contributions will be a deciding factor. For all of the players mentioned, their roles on offense and defense are likely to be relatively small as long as everyone is healthy, so being able to contribute in the third phase of the game will be a must to justify a roster spot.

It’s also important to keep in mind that with special teams being an all-encompassing unit made up of both sides of the ball, these roster battles extend beyond the position group. Dominique Dafney, Ray Wilborn, Tariq Carpenter, and Innis Gaines are all competing with each other for a roster spot. At the end of the day, regardless of position, who can provide the most special teams value?

As Gutey said, the Packers want the best 53 players on the roster, but math is math, and if they decide to keep a fifth tight end or a seventh wide receiver, for example, they’ll need to make a cut elsewhere. There are only 53 roster spots, after all.