Packers Offense Found Less Success on Downfield Throws in 2021

After leading the NFL in points per game in 2020, the Green Bay Packers offense a season ago, while still effective and ranking 10th in that same category, never quite hit the same stride that they did the previous year.

As always, there are many reasons that contributed to the dropoff, but one area where the Packers were less efficient was on downfield attempts.

By Sharp Football’s explosive pass play rate metric, Green Bay still found success, ranking 10th, but in 2020, they had ranked second overall. Aaron Rodgers’ numbers on passes of 20-plus yards were pretty much down across the board as well.

With 16 fewer attempts in 2021, Rodgers accumulated 1,041 of his passing yards on downfield attempts compared to 1,435 yards in 2020. His adjusted completion percentage fell from 47.2% to 41.1%, while his yards per attempt dipped as well, falling from 16.1 yards in 2020 to 14.3 yards in 2021, according to PFF ($$).

These are just a few examples, but you get the idea. So what may have caused this dropoff in efficiency?

Well, not to sound like a broken record, but there are likely many reasons–but two that really stand out are that the Packers were without Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a decent amount of time last season, along with the offensive line play not being as strong either.

Valdes-Scantling had his ups and downs with the Packers, but there was no one else on this team that could take the top off the defense quite like he could with that 4.37-speed of his–and him appearing in only 11 games likely played a role in Rodgers’ having fewer attempts.

During the 2020 season, Valdes-Scantling’s 30 downfield attempts were the eighth most among receivers. He ranked sixth in total downfield yards and third in yards per catch as well–not to mention that his five touchdowns were also the third most.

However, with Valdes-Scantling missing six games, including the playoff loss against San Francisco, that element was never quite the same during his absence. And perhaps that lack of time together — both in practice and in live games — was a reason why we saw Rodgers and Valdes-Scantling not able to connect at the same rate when those shot plays did take place.

When it comes to the offensive line, as I wrote recently, all things considered, this group held their own with all of those injuries–but with that said, they weren’t nearly as dominant as they were in 2020. Even with Rodgers not holding on to the ball as long in 2021, he was still pressured 44 more times.

Rodgers’ time to throw on downfield pass attempts fell from 3.11 seconds to 2.99 seconds–which may not seem like a lot, but for a quarterback surveying the field, that can be an eternity.

This could have been another factor behind why there were fewer attempts from Rodgers to push the ball downfield–the trust just simply wasn’t the same as it had been the previous season.

Green Bay was also less effective off play-action, where we see shot plays take place, and that too could be attributed to the offensive line. For one, extra time is needed for those plays to develop, and with the run game not being as effective either, defenses may have been less willing to bite on the play-fake.

Hopefully, with a healthy offensive line at some point, along with added competition through the draft, and the experienced gain by Green Bay’s trio of interior offensive linemen, we see an improved offensive line unit–which could lead to an improved downfield passing attack.

And for all the question marks at the receiver position, with the additions of Christian Watson, Samori Toure, and Romeo Doubs, this offense isn’t lacking in big-play ability–although the biggest hurdle may be for each of the young receivers to get on the same page as Rodgers.

While the run game, as well as getting the ball out quick to pass-catchers in space, are key components of the Matt LaFleur offense, so is taking those shots downfield–and we know Rodgers loves doing so. As many wonder how this offense can remain effective without Davante Adams, one aspect of that solution is becoming more efficient on those big-play attempts, just as they were in 2020.