Packers Cut ’em or Keep ’em & Prediction: Randall Cobb

Up next in the Cut ’em or Keep ’em & Prediction series is Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb.

With the Packers nearly $51 million over the 2022 salary cap, according to Over the Cap, I’m taking a look at each potential cap casualty and discussing why Green Bay might keep them, why they would cut them, and then I’ll make my final prediction.

Why the Green Bay Packers would keep Randall Cobb

2022 cap hit: $9.53 million

Truthfully, this decision feels a lot like it hinges on whether or not Aaron Rodgers is back and what he wants–after all, Cobb was a Green Bay Packer in 2022 because Rodgers had asked Brian Gutekunst to bring him in.

But from a football perspective, Cobb is a terrific fit for this Matt LaFleur offense with his ability from the slot — something that has been missing in past seasons — and to be used in motion. He was also a very trusted and reliable target in key situations, such as on third downs, where he caught 12 of his 17 targets, 10 of which went for first downs, as well as in the red zone, where Cobb had four receptions for four touchdowns.

There is certainly something to be said for having a player of Cobb’s experience on the team, especially with Amari Rodgers being an unknown, not to mention the trust that Rodgers has in him–something that we know is very important. And who knows, maybe if Cobb were back, he could provide some much-needed stability as the punt returner.

If Cobb does return, he won’t be playing on his current deal. With 2022 being the final year of his contract, a likely move to free up cap space while still keeping him would be a restructure with voided years added to the deal.

Why the Green Bay Packers would cut Randall Cobb

2022 cap hit: $6.74 million

The 31-year-old Cobb is coming off a season in which he missed the final five games with a core injury. On top of that, while he was reliable in some higher-leverage situations, as mentioned above, it’s not as if he was featured heavily in this offense either.

Cobb would average just over three targets per game and finished with 28 total receptions for 375 yards and five touchdowns in the 12 regular-season games. In fact, in Green Bay’s playoff loss, he was targeted just one time late in the game.

From a special teams perspective, it was a very bumpy rookie season for Amari Rodgers, but we saw very little of him on offense. The Green Bay Packers did trade up for him in last year’s draft, and after a season to learn behind Cobb, I imagine LaFleur and Co. will want to see what they have in the young wide receiver, who will fill a very similar role.

Prediction: Cut if Rodgers is gone and restructured or cut and re-signed if Rodgers is back

I know, this is a bit of weak prediction on my part, but I do think the Green Bay Packers restructure Randall Cobb’s contract as a way to lower his cap hit and keep him with the team for another season if Aaron Rodgers does return. However, if the Packers do go this route, what is the corresponding cap move(s) that has to be made? It’s all about tradeoffs when it comes to the salary cap.

If Rodgers is gone, there are several reasons why moving on from Cobb makes sense. For starters, the Packers need all the cap space they can get, and being able to free up nearly $7 million worth is a rather large chunk–think of who else they would be able to re-sign with that amount of cap space.

As mentioned above, Green Bay did invest a third-round pick into Amari Rodgers — which does matter — and he is someone who was compared to Cobb coming out of college. While Cobb’s presence on third downs can’t be overstated, Allen Lazard filled a similar role prior to Cobb’s arrival and when he was out injured and can do so on a cheaper contract.

Also, in terms of scoring points, the Green Bay offense didn’t miss much of a beat while Cobb was sidelined. The Packers would average 33.4 points per contest over their final five games.

If Rodgers is back, I imagine he will want Cobb with him, which is a difficult variable to account for in this prediction, and if it keeps the MVP content, it’s a move you make. Perhaps that would involve cutting Cobb and then re-signing him to a more team-friendly deal or they could restructure his contract as well.

But given Green Bay’s cap situation, they can’t keep everyone, and given his cap hit, I would guess moving on from Cobb is a somewhat easy decision for Brian Gutekunst. Again I ask the question, if Cobb is back, then how does that potentially effect other moves that the Packers either can or can’t make?