Green Bay Packers Run Game Doesn’t Generate as many Big Plays in 2021
By Paul Bretl
The Green Bay Packers have one of the best running back duos in the game today with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon–both of whom had very productive seasons.
Jones would total 799 rushing yards on 4.7 yards per carry, while Dillon would rush for 803 yards on 4.3 yards per attempt. Both were also reliable and effective pass-catchers for this offense, with Jones totaling 391 receiving yards and Dillon 313. The duo also recorded 17 total touchdowns.
However, as a team, we saw a Green Bay Packers run game that wasn’t as efficient as it was a season ago and a group that didn’t generate nearly as many big plays on the ground.
In 2020, the Packers would average 4.8 yards per rush as a team, which ranked sixth in the NFL. This year, they would average 4.2 yards, and that ranked 21st. We also didn’t see the big plays being generated as frequently either. Sharp Football defines an explosive run as a play of 10 or more yards on the ground. Last season, Green Bay had an explosive run rate of 11 percent and generated 53 explosive runs. This year, those figures fell to just eight percent and 36.
On first down, Green Bay would find similar success rushing the ball, averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season compared to 4.6 in 2020. But on second and third downs is where we really saw the difference. The Packers would average 3.6 yards per rush on second down this season and 4.4 on third down. A season ago, however, they would average 4.8 yards per attempt on second down — 1.2 yards more than this season — and 5.5 yards on third downs.
Now, there is very rarely ever one reason behind why something happens in football, but I have to imagine all of the movement and injuries along the Green Bay offensive line didn’t help. Including the playoffs, the Packers utilized seven different offensive line combinations over the course of the season, and they ranked 23rd in run-blocking by PFF’s grading system. For added context, the Packers finished seventh in 2020.
For transparency purposes, while PFF was never a huge fan of Green Bay’s run-blocking, ESPN had the Packers ranked fourth in their run-block win rate metric. Football Outsider’s DVOA metric also had Green Bay’s rushing offense as a top-10 unit.
Again, I’ll reiterate just as I have all season long, this Green Bay Packers run game was still effective, for the most part, but I think we can all agree that it wasn’t at the same level that it was at a season ago. I also believe those high rankings from ESPN and Football Outsiders are, in part, a testament to just how good Jones and Dillon are.
According to PFF ($$), both would finish inside the top-20 out of 64 eligible running backs in yards after contact average, with Jones also finishing 13th in missed tackles forced and Dillon 22nd–showcasing their abilities to make plays on their own.
During the final five or six weeks of the regular season, this offense really started to find their groove. But when comparing that group to the 2020 version of the Packers offense, which finished first in points per game and had the top red-zone scoring offense in football, I think we can all agree that this year’s Packers’ offense was never able to click quite like that. Green Bay would finish the season 10th in points per game and 19th in red-zone success rate.
The run game not finding the same level of success certainly isn’t the sole reason that the offense wasn’t as efficient this season–and I’m not saying that. From a statistical standpoint, there was likely some regression that was going to take place. However, I do believe that it was one of the contributors–especially in the red-zone.
This also isn’t a knock on the offensive line play, which held up incredibly well this season all things considered. A majority of offensive line units around the NFL would have crumbled had they dealt with the injuries that Green Bay did. With that said, the injuries did zap some of the dominance that we saw from the offensive line win it in 2020.
Ultimately the run game just wasn’t as effective. In terms of production, the Packers ground game took a step back on second and third downs, their season averaged dipped by over half a yard per carry, while they also didn’t generate nearly as many explosive plays. Overall, this one of the likely reasons that this offense just wasn’t as effective as a season ago.