3 Keys to Victory for Green Bay Packers vs. 49ers
By Paul Bretl
We now know that the Green Bay Packers will face the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs–and understandably so, there are some who have concerns about this game, given that the Niners do pose some matchup problems for Green Bay.
Although there are always a number of factors that can determine the outcome of the game, for the Packers in this particular matchup, I have my 3 Keys to Victory, that if executed properly, will go a long way in securing the win on Saturday.
Key to Victory No. 1 for the Green Bay Packers: Tackling & gap integrity against the run
I don’t need to remind you of what happened the last time these two teams met in the playoffs, and in terms of this upcoming game, that has no bearing. However, this is still a San Francisco 49ers offense that relies heavily on the run game and a Green Bay Packers defense that has allowed 4.7 yards per carry this season, which ranks 31st, and they also rank 28th by DVOA.
The first time these two teams met this season, Green Bay held the Niners to only 3.2 yards per carry. However, there have been some new developments since then–mainly the emergence of Elijah Mitchell and Kyle Shanahan using Deebo Samuel as a ball carrier.
Mitchell, a rookie, would play in only 11 games but still finished the year with 963 rushing yards on 4.7 yards per carry. His 3.83 yards after contact average was the fourth most in football, according to PFF ($$), and Mitchell’s 41 missed tackles ranked 11th among running backs.
Meanwhile, since Week 10, Samuel is averaging 7.0 rushing attempts per game, including the Wildcard round, along with 6.3 yards per carry and nine rushing touchdowns.
In reality, there is no slowing Mitchell and Samuel on the ground; the hope is that this Green Bay defense can contain them. And to do so, it’ll be important that they demonstrate sound tackling with all 11 defenders swarming to the football, along with the defensive front and linebackers maintaining their gap responsibilities.
Unlike in previous years, this Packer defense has been very sound with their tackling this season, ranking second by PFF’s metrics. In terms of gap responsibilities, if any of Green Bay’s front-seven gets too far upfield or over pursues, it’s going to create lanes for an already elusive duo.
The Cleveland game from just a few weeks ago is a prime example of where Green Bay struggled with these two fundamentals of football. The Packer edge rushers, in particular, were far too aggressive and abandoned their run fit assignments, while as a team, they would miss nine tackles. The end result was the Browns rushing for nearly 9.0 yards per carry.