Final Thoughts on Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings

Before the Green Bay Packers take on the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football, here are several final thoughts on the upcoming NFC North matchup.

Here is what you need to know as the Green Bay Packers take on the Minnesota Vikings.

– I went into greater detail on the topic here, but I really hope we see Joe Barry dial up the aggressiveness this week. Blitz Sean Mannion, double-cover Justin Jefferson, and load the box against Dalvin Cook. With that said, I have my doubts that too many adjustments will be made.

– Green Bay ranks 25th in blitz rate, but the emphasis should be on making Mannion uncomfortable–he also doesn’t move around well. And while they’ve been playing a lot of soft coverages, I want to see the corners closer to the line of scrimmage on all three downs–take away the easy completions and force Mannion to beat you with his arm.

– It goes without saying, but obviously, there is a big difference in having Kirk Cousins under center vs. Sean Mannion. But overall, I expect the Minnesota game plan to be fairly similar–they’re going to rely heavily on Cook. Green Bay can’t continue to play with these lightboxes against run-heavy opponents.

– With a win over Minnesota along with Arizona defeating Dallas, the Green Bay Packers can clinch the NFC’s No.1 seed today.

– The Packers elevated the recently signed David Moore from the practice squad. He has 22 career punt return attempts and has averaged 8.4 yards per return per PFF. Moore also has four career kick return attempts as well. Amari Rodgers is on the reserve/COVID list, while Malik Taylor is on IR.

– My three X-Factors are Dean Lowry, the Green Bay safeties, and Josiah Deguara.

– Kene Nwangwu can cause some issues for the Packers kick coverage unit. He has two touchdowns on only 13 attempts and leads the NFL with 35.0 yards per return. Green Bay ranks 26th in average kick return allowed with 25.5 yards.

– Speaking of the special teams unit, it was actually a somewhat sound performance last week against Cleveland. Let’s do that again! By PFF’s grading system, the Vikings special teams unit ranks as the eighth-best in football.

–  How do the Packers start and finish this game? They rank 26th in average first-quarter points scored this season, and they’ve also had issues putting teams away late–especially more recently. They’ve struggled with their opening script and been a bit passive late in games.

– Good News, several players were removed from the reserve/COVID list on Saturday, including Marcedes Lewis and Corey Bojorquez. Also taken off the list were Ben Braden, Oren Burks, and Tyler Davis.

– Green Bay will also have Marquez Valdes-Scantling back as well. As I wrote about recently, while his deep-ball ability draws much of the attention — and understandably so — his performance in Baltimore, where he lined up in the slot and turned intermediate receptions into big plays really showcased how far he’s come.

– It’s going to be incredibly cold at Lambeau Field, and the Vikings have already ruled out IDL Micahel Pierce–we will hopefully see plenty of AJ Dillon on Sunday night. Dillon is averaging 3.16 yards after contact, which ranks 13th among running backs.

– Aaron Rodgers is coming off a red to December in which he completed 74.5 percent of his 102 passes for 811 yards, 10 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 130.0.

– If you recall, when the Green Bay Packers played Minnesota the first time around, it was a slow start to the game for Rodgers and this offense, but he would end up putting together a very impressive second half. Rodgers finished the day 23/33 for 385 yards and four touchdowns.

– Minnesota will likely be without CB Cam Dantzler, who is listed as doubtful. On 55 targets this season, Dantzler has allowed a completion rate of 52 percent and only 9.9 yards per catch, according to PFF ($$). He also has an interception and five PBUs. Mike Zimmer has been able to stifle Rodgers and the offense on a few occasions over the years, but that will become more difficult without Dantzler.

– The Vikings are also without Adam Thielen, who was placed on IR earlier this week, so another name to watch is tight end, Tyler Conklin. This season, Conklin has 74 targets, 540 yards, and three touchdowns per PFF.

– The outcome from the last time these two teams played was a bit flukey in the sense that Green Bay was unable to capitalize on three or four turnover opportunities and they needed to rely on the blitz to generate any sort of regular pressure on Kirk Cousins. These are two areas — generating turnovers and pressure — that the Green Bay Packers have been very good at all season long, even in recent weeks when they’ve struggled. Had they been able to capitalize on one or two of those turnover opportunities or converted a pressure or two into a sack, that game could have ended differently.

– Elgton Jenkins and Billy Turner were both along the Packers’ offensive line the last time these two teams met, and Green Bay would surrender only nine pressures the entire game. Although this time around they will be without both of those players, we’ve certainly learned that the current starting five can be trusted–with some help from tight end chips and the quick passing game, of course. It’s also worth noting that the Minnesota defense ranks 27th in pass-rush win rate and 32nd in run-stop win rate, according to ESPN.

– Prediction: Packers 24 – Vikings 16