Green Bay Packers Thin Run Defense will be Tested Again v. Vikings
By Paul Bretl
There was a decent stretch through the middle of the season where the Green Bay Packers run defense did seem improved over what we had seen from this unit over the last two seasons. They didn’t allow their first 100-yard rusher of the season until just this past week, and opponents typically weren’t controlling games on the ground as they had in the past–Green Bay does rank fourth in time of possession this season.
However, although our eyes were maybe telling us one thing, the numbers were never a huge fan of this Green Bay Packers’ run defense.
Prior to the Cleveland game, the Packers ranked 25th in yards per carry allowed at 4.5. They now rank 31st, allowing on average 4.8 yards per rush. The same could be said for DVOA; after ranking 25th heading into the Browns game, that rough showing dropped Green Bay to 31st. Regardless, it’s not as if they rated very well before that game either.
Over these last two games against Baltimore and Cleveland, this Packer run defense, which had flown under the radar at times this season, has looked about as good as their rankings would suggest.
As a team, the Ravens would average 5.5 yards per carry, with Latavius Murray averaging nearly 7.0 yards per clip on seven attempts, along with quarterback Tyler Huntley averaging 5.6 yards per rush on 13 carries. Now, the Green Bay Packers didn’t have Kenny Clark, and he was certainly missed with little push up the middle, not to mention that the edge rushers did a poor job of keeping Huntley in the pocket.
Against Cleveland, the Browns have one of the best offensive line units in football and also utilize a lot of two and even three tight end sets. Nick Chubb would run wild, averaging 7.4 yards per carry, while as a team, the Browns averaged almost 9.0 yards every rush–a ridiculous amount.
Unfortunately, things aren’t going to get any easier for Green Bay with Minnesota coming to town. Dalvin Cook has been cleared to play and is once again one of the more productive running backs in football.
According to PFF ($$), Cook’s 1,067 rushing yards are the fourth most in football, and his 4.7 average is tied for 10th. He’s also been very difficult to bring down, totaling 655 yards after contact — the seventh most in football — and his 46 missed tackles forced ranks fifth.
Overall, Green Bay has been a very good tackling team this season, ranking first in that category by PFF’s grading system, but they would miss nine tackles just last week against Cleveland. This is also a Vikings’ offensive line that ranks 12th in ESPN’s run-block win rate metric.
"“They always show a great commitment to the run game,” coach Matt LaFleur said via Packers Wire. “When you give up as many yards as we did last week, and how we fit some of those runs, you know they’re going to test us. We’ll have to prove we have got things corrected. It’s going to be a great challenge for our defense.”"
For Joe Barry, given the play of the run defense and the upcoming opponent, he may have to make a somewhat dramatic shift in his game plan. Typically, Barry dares opposing offenses’ to run the ball with his goal being to take away the pass–in part, this is why Green Bay’s numbers against the run early on didn’t necessarily reflect their level of play as they oftentimes had to stop the run with lightboxes.
However, that strategy against Minnesota in what is going to be an incredibly chilly game at Lambeau Field could end very poorly. But then again, if you’re choosing to stop the run, that very well could open things up for Justin Jefferson in the passing game.
To make things more challenging for this Packers defense, they may be quite thin along the defensive front. Kingsley Keke was placed on the reserve/COVID list, and Tyler Lancaster did not participate in Wednesday’s practice due to an injury.
Ultimately, something has to change this week for the Green Bay Packers; they just can’t keep trotting out their same base defense against these run-heavy teams expecting to have success. And if that doesn’t change, well, it could be another big day for Cook at Lambeau Field–which we’ve all seen from him in the past.