Green Bay Packers Dominant when they Win Turnover Battle
By Paul Bretl
It’s widely known that winning the turnover battle can have a great effect on determining the outcome of a football game—this isn’t breaking news. But for the Green Bay Packers, not only does winning the turnover battle increase their chances of winning but during the Matt LaFleur era, it has all but guarantees a win.
According to the Packers’ weekly dope sheet, Green Bay is now 29-0 during the Matt LaFleur era when they win the takeaway battle. During that span of games, the Packers are +50 in turnover differential; they’ve averaged 30.7 points per game while giving up only 18.8.
Green Bay’s 29 games with a positive takeaway differential over these two-plus years with LaFleur as the head coach also leads the NFL and is the second-most in team history over a three-year span.
This season, in particular, the Green Bay Packers defense has been very opportunistic when it comes to creating turnovers.
Through Week 13, Green Bay ranks eighth in total takeaways with 22. They’ve also forced at least two takeaways in nine of their last 12 games.
Behind their turnover success is, of course, a little bit of luck. Turnover totals from year to year can be incredibly volatile, given that so much has to take place for the opportunity and conversion to happen. After ranking eighth in total turnovers in 2019, Green Bay would rank 26th in that category a season ago.
With that said, there are a number of tangible reasons why the Packers have been able to generate so many turnovers. One of which is that this defensive front has been terrific at pressuring the quarterback this season, ranking fourth in total pressures, according to PFF ($$). If a team is able to pressure the quarterback with regularity, eventually, it will result in a poor throw, a poor decision, or a forced fumble and the opportunity to take the ball away.
Also, this Joe Barry defense that heavily utilizes lightboxes and a cover-2 scheme provides the cornerbacks with some safety help and overall some extra bodies in the secondary.
I also have to mention that since this Green Bay defense is oftentimes playing with leads, especially late in games, that can also lead to more opportunities as quarterbacks try to push the ball downfield.
While it’s one thing to force a turnover, that’s only step one. Step two is for the offense to convert that opportunity into points but also to not give the opponent the ball back either—which when you have Aaron Rodgers, neither of those caveats are really concerns and are why Green Bay is 29-0 when they win the turnover battle.
With Rodgers being the best in NFL history at protecting the football with a career interception rate of 1.3 percent, opposing teams often won’t have the same opportunities that the Packers do to convert extra possessions into points.
An extra possession or two for this Green Bay Packers’ offense can be what turns a close game into a multi-score win, and it also allows them to better control the clock as well—keeping the opposing offense on the sidelines. Through 13 games, the Green Bay Packers are second in time of possession per game, and the defense’s ability to generate turnovers is one of several reasons why.
In short, more chances for Aaron Rodgers and this offense is a really, really good thing—duh. And this season, the Green Bay defense has given the offense plenty of those extra opportunities.
Although there are stats for everything these days, this is one of the more important ones to take note of given the effect that turnovers have on the game as well as Green Bay’s ability to convert those opportunities into points and eventually wins.