Green Bay Packers: PFF Predicts what Davante Adams Contract may Look Like

Among all of the potential roster turnover that could take place this upcoming offseason for the Green Bay Packers, one player who may be in the final year with the team is All-Pro wide receiver, Davante Adams.

It was reported by Ian Rapoport back in late July that the two parties had broken off long-term extension talks at that time after months of negotiations. Now, there certainly is the possibility that Adams and Green Bay have resumed negotiations, but we don’t know that either.

Ultimately, Adams wants to be paid like the league’s top receiver, an honor that he has certainly earned with the monster numbers that he puts up each season. On his current deal that pays him an average of $14.5 million per year, Adams is the NFL’s 18th highest-paid receiver by average annual value (AAV)–an absolute steal for the Green Bay Packers.

One big issue, however, and what is likely the main reason that the Green Bay Packers and Adams can’t come to an agreement, is determining who is technically the league’s highest-paid wide receiver.

In September of 2019, Julio Jones signed a three-year contract extension with Atlanta worth $66 million with $64 million of that guaranteed, according to Over the Cap. By AAV, that’s $22 million per year–a figure that was a bit of an outlier but still within range of Keenan Allen’s $20.02 million per year and Amari Cooper’s $20 million per year average.

But when it comes to DeAndre Hopkins’ contract extension with Arizona, that deal through the whole wide receiver market for a loop. Arizona acquired Hopkins from Houston with three years remaining on his current deal, but the two would come to terms on a two-year extension.

In terms of new money, $54.5 million was added to the contract, with $42.75 million guaranteed. That equates to an AAV of $27.25 million for those two years–blowing Jones’ deal out of the water. However, from the Cardinals’ perspective, when you add the $54.5 million on to what was already owed, the AAV of the entire five-year deal is only $18.9 million per season.

So when it comes to Davante Adams and the Green Bay Packers, I imagine Adams is looking at Hopkins’ extension as the figure he wants to earn on an annual basis, while the Packers are probably looking at Jones’ deal as the benchmark.

Recently, Pro Football Focus took a swing at trying to predict what some of the contracts could look like for a few high-profile free agents, one of which included Adams. They came up with a deal that would pay Adams $93 million over four years, with $52 million guaranteed and an AAV of $23.25 million.

If this is the financial neighborhood that Green Bay and Adams end up discussing, I would say the odds of him landing a new deal with the Packers is much greater–although there are still going to be a lot of financial gymnastics from Brian Gutekunst and Russ Ball to make it work.

At the moment, Over the Cap has Green Bay at $38.7 million over the projected 2022 salary cap. But as I mentioned in a recent article, that figure does not take into account other expenses such as the draft class, practice squad, any in-season spending, or a contract for Adams or any other free agents for that matter.

There are, of course, ways to create the additional cap space that will be needed, whether that be through restructures, extensions, or veteran cuts, but a lot of difficult decisions are going to come with that.

In addition to the financial component, it’s fair to wonder how Adams will feel about playing in Green Bay if Aaron Rodgers is elsewhere. While I understand that sentiment, the fact that Adams and the Packers were negotiating for much of this past offseason while Rodgers’ status was unknown tells me that he doesn’t have much of an issue with being in Green Bay without the reigning MVP. In the end, this likely comes down to Adams being paid what he feels he has earned.

For the time being, we will have to wait and see how this story ends, and if you’re looking for some optimism, who knows, maybe Green Bay and Adams are negotiating again. But regardless of when those talks resume — or if they resume — if the two parties are going to come to an agreement, someone is going to have to be willing to give a little.