Green Bay Packers v. Los Angeles Rams: Final Thoughts
By Paul Bretl
Before the Green Bay Packers take the field later today in a game against the Los Angeles Rams with major playoff implications, I have my final thoughts on the upcoming matchup.
– It’s not only Aaron Donald that the Green Bay Packers OL has to worry about. Top to bottom this is a deep defensive front. The Rams rank second by ESPN’s pass-block win rate metric and third by PFF’s grading system. They also allow only 4.0 yards per rush — the fifth-fewest — and have the seventh most pressures recorded.
– Finding success on the ground will be a must for the Green Bay Packers. If they become pass heavy and this Rams front is able to pin their ears back, well, that’s a recipe for disaster.
– Aaron Jones is listed as questionable after being a limited participant in all three practices this week. While his presence will be greatly needed, my guess is that Green Bay sits him out. Had he been a full participant for at least one of the days, I’d feel differently.
– A few ways that Matt LaFleur can provide the OL with help is by leaning on the run game, tight end chips, quick passes, screens, and motion. But ultimately, the OL is going to have to play well, and there will be one-on-one matchups that each player will have to win at times.
– Rashan Gary will play today, according to Tom Pelissero. Putting pressure on Matthew Stafford will be very important. If he has time, covering Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham will be all the more difficult for this secondary. Now we wait and see if Gary is a full go or on a pitch count.
– I also won’t be surprised to see more blitzing from Joe Barry as a way to generate more consistent pressure against a very good Rams OL. According to PFF ($$), the Rams have the highest graded pass-blocking OL this season, and they’ve allowed the fewest quarterback pressures. But as stout as this OL has been, we saw Tennessee have a lot of success generating pressure up the middle.
– Kupp leads the NFL in several receiving categories this season and has done most of his damage from the slot, which means he will be matched up on Chandon Sullivan quite often. To Sullivan’s credit, he has been solid this season, but Kupp is a whole new test.
– There is the very real possibility that Stafford will give this Packers defense a turnover opportunity or two, but unlike last week, Green Bay has to find a way to capitalize.
– According to PFF, the Green Bay Packers special teams unit ranks 29th, and the Rams ranks 26th. While the Packers have certainly had their issues this season, the Rams have had plenty of blunders of their own, including fake punts and allowing onside kick recoveries.
– Can this Green Bay Packers offense get off to a faster start? As I wrote recently, the lack of practice time certainly has not helped, but neither has the play-calling. Especially early on, there has been a lot of Aaron Rodgers holding onto the ball, looking for a deep shot. Instead, we need more of what we saw during the second half against Minnesota with quick passes, a better run/pass mix, play-action, boots, motion, and screens.
– While the Green Bay Packers will always play with lightboxes more often than not under Joe Barry, my guess is that against LA, they really lean into that, just as they did against Arizona, Kansas City, and Seattle. In doing so, Green Bay is basically daring the opponent to run the ball as they sell out to stop the pass. We didn’t see this strategy as often last week with Minnesota having Dalvin Cook in the backfield.
– The Rams rushing attack is averaging 4.0 yards per carry, which ranks 22nd this season, while the passing game ranks fourth in explosive pass play rate. So as I said, do what you can to take away the pass.
– Although Green Bay was in control of last year’s game between these two teams in the playoffs, keep in mind that Aaron Donald was not 100 percent, and the Rams also didn’t have Cooper Kupp available.
– Davante Adams will still get his targets and put up numbers but this feels like a game where it’s going to be important for the other pass catchers to step up. In the 2020 playoffs, Adams had nine catches on 10 targets but for only 66 yards. The running backs will also play an important role in the passing game as well.
– As we all know, Odell Beckham chose LA over Green Bay and today will mark his second game with the team. Although he’s had a bye week to help him get acclimated with the offense, how much of him will we truly see?
– Overall, this is a very intriguing matchup between two very similar offenses and two very similar defenses. Both teams know each other well.
Prediction: Packers 20 – Rams 24