Green Bay Packers v. Seahawks: Final Thoughts on Week 10
By Paul Bretl
The 7-2 Green Bay Packers are back at home to take on the 3-5 Seattle Seahawks—and both teams will have their star quarterbacks back under center.
As I do before each game, here are my final thoughts on the Green Bay Packers upcoming matchup.
– The Chiefs blitzed the heck out of Jordan Love last week and found a lot of success. Love was flustered, but the Green Bay Packers OL had a lot of trouble with their assignments. Obviously, we won’t see teams blitz Aaron Rodgers at that rate, but I won’t be surprised if we see teams try to pressure him more.
– According to PFF ($$), in terms of completion rate, yards per attempt, and passer rating, Rodgers has been one of the worst QBs this season when under pressure.
– Will there be any rust for Russell Wilson, who has missed the last few games? And what about Rodgers, who has spent the last 10 days at home recovering from COVID?
– The Seahawks are fourth in explosive pass rate, according to Sharp Football. The Packers’ defense ranks sixth in preventing those big plays.
– Tyler Lockett is top-5 in deep-ball targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. DK Metcalf is averaging 36.6 yards per catch on passes of 20+ yards, and his passer rating when targeted is the 11th best among receivers. Wilson’s deep ball rate of 16 percent is the second-highest rate this season. You get the point, Seattle likes to push the ball downfield, and they’re good at it too.
– Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos are going to play very key roles in limiting those explosive plays. I’d expect a lot of cover-2 from the Packers to prevent the big play but also to provide some help to the cornerbacks.
– It’s going to be important that the Green Bay Packers keep Wilson in the pocket. If he can extend plays, it will cause issues for the secondary. The Packers were successful the last two weeks at containing Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes.
– If the Packers’ OL can give Rodgers time, he should be able to pick apart this Seattle secondary.
– In terms of pressuring the QB, Seattle has been okay — around league average in a few key categories — but not dominant by any means.
– Kenny Clark and Eric Stokes are questionable. It goes without saying, but having both would be huge. Stokes and his speed can match up with Lockett, while Clark is the most important player on this defense. When Clark is playing at a high level — which he has been for much of the year — the entire defense benefits.
– I spent some time talking about Wilson pushing the ball downfield, but it is the Seahawks, so we know they’ll run the ball a fair amount. However, Seattle is still without Cris Carson.
– The Packers have won nine straight games against the Seahawks at Lambeau Field, and Russell Wilson has really struggled in Titletown.
– As always, establish and stick to the run game. The offense is so much more efficient when going through Jones and Dillon.
– Also, let’s get Dillon some more touches. In the last four games, he is averaging almost 5.0 yards per rush and 10 yards per catch.
– Can the special teams unit just hold it together? I’m not asking for greatness, but just no massive blunders. Please?
– It’s also worth mentioning that Seattle’s special teams unit isn’t very good either. Per PFF, Seattle ranks 31st and the Packers 32nd.
– Matt LaFleur mentioned that he considered pulling Amari Rodgers from punt duty last week. Will he be back there today?
– Robert Tonyan is on IR, and Dominique Dafney is doubtful. The Packers are quite thin at TE, and the same could be said for IDL with Kingsley Keke out and Clark’s status unknown.
– No David Bakhtiari today. Pay attention to the injury reports. I imagine he will need to be a full participant each day before he returns.
– The overall numbers for this Seahawks defense aren’t impressive, but they have been playing better as of late.
– Look for the Green Bay Packers to utilize the screen game today; the Seahawks have really struggled in defending it.
– Prediction: Packers 27 – Seahawks 21 — these games are always close.