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Milwaukee Brewers: Seiya Suzuki is high-risk, high-reward free agent target

By Brian Sampson

YOKOHAMA, JAPAN - AUGUST 07: Outfielder Seiya Suzuki #51 of Team Japan hits a single in the six during the gold medal game between Team United States and Team Japan on day fifteen of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games at Yokohama Baseball Stadium on August 07, 2021 in Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
YOKOHAMA, JAPAN - AUGUST 07: Outfielder Seiya Suzuki #51 of Team Japan hits a single in the six during the gold medal game between Team United States and Team Japan on day fifteen of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games at Yokohama Baseball Stadium on August 07, 2021 in Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images) /
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As a small-market team, the Milwaukee Brewers must be extremely efficient with their limited resources. Still, there’s a time and a place for smart gambles and they should take a calculated bet on Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki.

With MLB free agency underway, and likely only going until the CBA expires on December 1st (at least until the player’s association and league agree on a new deal), the Brewers and the rest of the league must strike fast with current free agents. That could force some teams to make rash decisions about the little-known Suzuki.

It’s not a done deal, but Suzuki is expected to be posted by his team the Hiroshima Carp this offseason meaning a team would have to pay them a likely fee around $10 million for Suzuki’s services.

At 27-years-old, he’s younger than most free-agent outfield targets and won’t turn 28 until next August. That could be attractive for a Brewers’ team who is looking for some longer-term solutions in their outfield.

If the Milwaukee Brewers truly want to take a swing for the fences in free agency, they’ll target outfielder Seiya Suzuki.

Milwaukee currently has a lot of money tied up in the outfield with Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Jackie Bradley jr all commanding large salaries. That doesn’t even include Avisail Garcia who just opted out of his portion of the mutual contract.

The good news is both Cain and Bradley Jr. will come off the books in 2023. That’s particularly important when discussing Suzuki because he could command a four or five-year deal. MLB Trade Rumors predicts he’ll get a five-year, $55 million contract while ESPN predicts he’ll get a four-year, $48 million deal. The former has him as their 20th ranked free agent while he’s 17th for the latter.

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An $11 or $12 million average seems like a reasonable price to pay for Suzuki’s services. He has an upside a lot of the other free agents going for that money don’t carry (he also has a higher risk). It’s always uncertain how someone’s game will transfer from a different league and that will be for the Brewers’ scouts and front office to sort through.

If everything goes as planned, Suzuki would become the Brewers’ every day starting right fielder. He has been an elite defensive right fielder in Japan, but projects as an above-average defender in the MLB with a strong arm.

He’ll also hit somewhere in the middle of the lineup with good power. Even better, he doesn’t strike out a ton, as he has found a way to make power contact without the usual risk associated with swinging for the fences. He’ll also draw a number of walks and is a solid baserunner.

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Milwaukee will have to assess whether he’s worth the risk. There’s also the possibility he could bottom out and none of his potential come to fruition with a change to the best baseball league in the world. That’s the nature of the beast Stearns and company will have to make a decision on.

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