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Milwaukee Brewers: NLDS Preview and Predictions

By Harrison Carter

Aug 30, 2021; San Francisco, California, USA; Milwaukee Brewers manager Craig Counsell walks back to the dugout before the game against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 30, 2021; San Francisco, California, USA; Milwaukee Brewers manager Craig Counsell walks back to the dugout before the game against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports /
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After a 162 game journey, the Milwaukee Brewers have found themselves back in the playoffs for a fourth straight year, this time as NL Central Division champions.

As they hold the two seed in the NL side of the bracket, they will play the three seed; the NL East Division champions Atlanta Braves. While the Brewers finished the season with seven more wins on the year, the season series between the two clubs was a 3-3 split.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the key factors that will help determine the winner of this NLDS series between the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta.

Pitching Battle

Both teams carry extremely strong starting pitching. Of course, the Brewers are led by their trio of aces in Corbin Burnes (1st in pitching WAR), Brandon Woodruff (9th in pitching WAR), and Freddy Peralta (17th in pitching WAR). The Brewers’ aces have led the team to having the second-best starting pitcher ERA in the league, only behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Braves are no slouches when it comes to their starting rotation either, as their Game 1 starter will be Charlie Morton (10th in pitching WAR), and Game 2 will almost certainly belong to Max Fried (18th in pitching WAR).

Both bullpens are also formidable, as the Milwaukee Brewers rank 10th in the league in reliever ERA while the Braves rank 14th.

Missing Players

Injuries and other circumstances will play a fairly large role in this series. The Braves will be without star outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. who tore his ACL in early July. Additionally, Braves outfielder Marcell Ozuna recently had his administrative leave extended throughout the playoffs, so the Braves will be without Ozuna for the remainder of the year.

For the Brewers, the majority of their batters are healthy, which is a positive sign. It is the bullpen that has its fair share of injuries at the moment.

On Sept. 25th, Jake Cousins was placed on the 10-day IL with a right bicep strain. Cousins was able to get some reps in Triple-A Nashville and, barring any setbacks, should be on the NLDS roster.

The biggest blow for the Brewers will be missing star reliever Devin Williams, who fractured his throwing hand after punching a wall. There is the possibility that he could return for the World Series if Milwaukee advances that far, but even if that’s the case, he’s going to miss the Atlanta series.

Home Field … Disadvantage?

While home field advantage certainly has helped many teams throughout the history of the playoffs, I will be curious to see how the Brewers play at home. The Brewers are the second-best team in the league on the road this year, with a record of 50-31. At home, however, they finished 45-36. That is a 6.1 percent negative change in win percentage from home to away—by far the worst in the league.

It will be interesting to see if they can take advantage of having the majority of the games in this series being played at American Family Field.

Series Prediction

The divisional series have always been hard to predict. So much can happen in a best of five series, and all it takes is for one team to get hot at the right time to advance to the championship series.

That being said, I think the Milwaukee Brewers’ pitching staff will overwhelm the Braves’ hitters. Even without Devin Williams, I trust the Brewers bullpen to close out games in this series. All in all, I predict the Brewers will win the NLDS in four games.

What do you think? What are your predictions for the NLDS?

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