Green Bay Packers: Preston Smith Expected to have “Heck of a Year”
By Paul Bretl
After what was a very down 2020 season with the Green Bay Packers, Preston Smith took an incentive-laden pay cut to stay in Titletown for the upcoming season.
According to PFF ($$), Smith saw his pressure total plummet from 62 to only 29, and he recorded just five sacks instead of the 15 that he had in 2019.
By this point, it’s well documented that Smith was not in the same football shape in 2020 that he was during the prior year. Then during an interview with reporters last week, Smith mentioned that he was asked to drop into coverage more often with Kyler Fackrell no longer on the team–which meant fewer opportunities to rush the passer.
However, the numbers don’t illustrate that. By PFF’s metrics, Smith rushed the passer 446 times in 2020 compared to 456 times in 2019. And by these same numbers, he actually dropped into coverage less in 2020 than what he did in 2019.
Now, of course, these figures from PFF are not the be-all-end-all and they may not perfectly align with what the Green Bay Packers have documented, but they do help illustrate that there wasn’t a huge shift in pass-rush opportunities for Smith.
When asked about this specifically, defensive coordinator Joe Barry suggested that the coverage snaps shouldn’t be a hindrance when it comes to pressuring the quarterback, adding that “the year that Justin Houston got 22 sacks, he dropped (into coverage) 150 times.”
But 2021 is a new year, and by all accounts, Smith is in excellent shape, with OLB coach Mike Smith telling reporters that Preston is leaner, stronger, and that “he looks like he did the first year when he got here.”
Mike Smith would then go on to add that Preston is “going to have a heck of a year” and that he has “no doubt about it.”
For Smith, who took a significant pay cut as mentioned above, he will earn quite a bit of additional money with a “heck of a year.” As part of his restructured deal, he will make an extra $500,000 if he records six sacks, $750,000 if he hits the 10 mark, $1.2 million if he tallies 12 sacks, and another $1.2 million if he hits 14–bringing the bonus total to $4.4 million.
Barry also indicated that he would like to get Smith more pass rush attempts this season. However, it’s not only finding additional reps for Smith that Barry and Co. will have to worry about, but Rashan Gary as well, who is an ascending player and a prime candidate for a huge third season.
Even with Smith struggling last season and Gary performing like the second-best edge rusher on this team, Preston saw significantly more playing time than him–on average taking nearly twice as many snaps per game as Gary. It’s difficult to envision that being the case this season, which will ultimately reduce Smith’s snap count.
Realistically, Smith’s 2021 season is going to fall somewhere between 2019 and 2020. With 2019 being a career year for him, expectations shouldn’t be that he’s going to record similar sack and pressure numbers—especially if Gary sees more action.
But odds are that he’s going to be better than the five sacks and 29 pressures that he posted a year ago. As is often the case, the answer likely lies in the middle—perhaps 7-8 sacks and 40-45 pressures for the purpose of making a guess.
As we all know, the name of the game is pressuring the quarterback, and a resurgence from Smith coupled with Gary, Za’Darius Smith, and Kenny Clark should form a very formidable defensive front for the Green Bay Packers.