Brewers: Jesus Aguilar Could Fill Need at 1B, per Ken Rosenthal

The Milwaukee Brewers just recently acquired Rowdy Tellez via trade from the Toronto Blue Jays, but that doesn’t mean that they are done addressing the first base position—especially with David Stearns at the helm.

Tellez has a career .755 OPS, which is decent, but he’s really struggled this season, recording a .487 OPS during his short stint with the Crew and a .600 OPS for the entire season. Meanwhile, Keston Hiura continues to struggle at the plate and is still striking out at a high clip. And Daniel Vogelbach has been on the IL, but even upon his return, he’s a limited player.

As I alluded to, there is certainly room to upgrade this position. One name in particular, Jesús Aguilar, who is available for trade, is a familiar one for Milwaukee Brewers fans, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal ($$) mentioned that he could fill their void at first base:

"“The Marlins’ Jesús Aguilar could be the right-handed-hitting first baseman the Brewers need, except for one thing: Aguilar’s production historically tails off after the All-Star break, and that was especially true in 2017 and ’18, his two full seasons in Milwaukee.“"

The Miami Marlins have made it clear that they are open for business, which means a reunion with Aguilar could be in store.

During his first season in Milwaukee in 2017, Aguilar really came out of nowhere, posting a .265/.331/.505 slash line with 16 home runs, 15 doubles, and two triples. His OPS+ that year was 14 percent above league average at 114. The following season, Aguilar was an All-Star, behind a .890 OPS, 35 home runs, 108 RBIs, and a 135 OPS+.

Unfortunately, in 2019, Aguilar would really struggle at the plate during his time in Milwaukee, recording a .694 OPS with just eight home runs and a below-average OPS+ of 80. Nearing 30 years old and with no minor league options remaining, the Milwaukee Brewers traded him to Tampa Bay, trying to get some sort of value in return for him. In exchange for Aguilar, the Crew received relief pitcher Jacob Faria; however, he never panned out in Milwaukee.

Aguilar began the 2020 season with Miami, and while he hasn’t returned to his All-Star form and likely never will, he has been much closer to his 2017 performance in Milwaukee. This season, in particular, Aguilar is slashing .263/.325/.467, totaling a .793 OPS with 17 home runs, 15 doubles, an OPS+ of 115, and a league-leading 68 RBIs.

He is drawing walks about 8 percent of the time, which is about league average, and he’s striking out 18.7 percent of the time, which, again, is around league average and would be a welcomed sight for the Brewers at first base. Many of Aguilar’s peripheral stats, which includes max exit velocity, average exit velocity, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and others, are all well above league average as well, according to Baseball Savant, which is another good sign and indicates that there is nothing flukey going on.

With that said, as good as Aguilar has been at the start this season, as Rosenthal also mentions in his recent article, Aguilar’s production often declines over the second half of the season. He has a career OPS prior to the All-Star break of .963 but an OPS of only .747 over the second half of the season.

We know that Aguilar is a limited defender, although that’s not something that typically bothers the Milwaukee Brewers. This year by Outs Above Average (OAA), he’s been slightly above average, which is consistent with where he’s been at for much of his career. Not to mention that Aguilar would be an excellent clubhouse presence.

The Brewers have already been fairly active on the trade market this season, and according to FanSided’s Robert Murray, Milwaukee could also look to add up to two relievers before the trade deadline in an effort to bolster their bullpen. Could that affect whether or not they also address first base?

Aguilar comes with a $4.35 million deal for the 2021 season, and he is still under team control for 2022. If the Crew does decide to address the first base position once again to try to bolster this offense, you have to imagine that Aguilar is near the top of that list of candidates.