Milwaukee Brewers: A Pivotal 3 Game Series with the Reds
By Paul Bretl
Over the course of the 162 game MLB season, it’s difficult to point to one three-game series in mid-July as being a pivotal matchup. However, for the Milwaukee Brewers, who come out of the All-Star break with three games against the Cincinnati Reds, that’s a bit what this series feels like.
Since the latter part of May and up until the All-Star break, the Brewers have been red-hot for the most part, building a fairly significant lead in the NL Central.
As it currently stands, the Chicago Cubs, who Milwaukee was tied with not long ago, are 8.0 games behind the Brewers and now appear to be sellers at the trade deadline. Meanwhile, St. Louis has struggled to string together any consistently positive momentum, and they too sit 8.0 games behind Milwaukee at 44-46.
The Reds, however, are hanging around behind a top-10 offense that ranks tied for eighth in total runs and tenth in team OPS and some over performing starting pitching. Cincinnati is currently four games back of the Crew at 48-42 on the season.
In an odd scheduling quirk, the Milwaukee Brewers find themselves in the midst of playing seven straight games against the Reds—four before the break and three after. Cincy was able to get the best of the Brewers in that four-game series, taking three of them at American Family Field and allowing them to pull within four games.
This is why these next three games are so important. If the Reds are able to win this series, or if they were to sweep, then we have a very tight race for the NL Central crown. On the flip side, if the Brewers can take two of three or sweep, then their lead expands to five or seven games, giving themselves a very comfortable lead over everyone else in the division.
Again, I’ll reiterate that it’s only mid-July, and whether the Brewers have a one-game lead or a seven-game lead, there is still a long ways to go in the season, and a lot can change. With that said, regardless of what point in the season you’re at, there’s a huge difference between a seven-game lead and a one-game lead, and that could affect how the Reds approach the trade deadline as well. After this series, the Reds face the Mets, Cardinals, and Cubs.
The Milwaukee Brewers know how important this series is, and coming out of the break will have their aces, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, on the mounds for Games 2 and 3 of this series. But as has been the case all season long, pitching isn’t the issue; the bats will need to show up.
Against the Reds specifically, this Brewers offense has just a .652 OPS—the fourth-lowest total against any opponent this season. Not to mention that they would produce just four total runs over the final three games of the previous series. However, two blown ninth innings from Josh Hader didn’t help things either.
The Milwaukee bats were unable to take advantage of the Reds’ bullpen in the last series, which has the fourth-highest ERA in baseball, along with giving up the fourth-most home runs and the second-most walks. That will likely have to change this time around if they hope to build upon their division lead.
The series kicks off Friday evening in Cincinnati with Adrian Houser on the mound for the Crew, taking on Tyler Mahle, who has a 3.68 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Mahle allowed three earned runs in six innings of work with four walks the last time he faced Milwaukee in what ended up being a 5-3 loss to the Brewers.