Could the Green Bay Packers’ Offense Operate Without Aaron Rodgers?

As we all know, talk of Aaron Rodgers and his future with the Green Bay Packers has taken center stage in not only Packer news but broad NFL news as well. As a future Hall of Famer and reigning MVP, the possibility of him playing in a different uniform in a few months has caused buzz all around the league about what this could mean for each team.

Today, we’ll take a look at what that big change would mean for the green and gold. If worst comes to worst and they’re forced to trade him, or he refuses to come to training camp, there’s still a 17-game season to be played, and Jordan Love would almost definitely be under center trying to lead the Pack to the playoffs. So the question then becomes, “Can he do it in this system?”

To answer that question, we’ll look at the kind of throws he’ll be asked to make, what other quarterbacks have done in similar schemes on other teams, and Jordan Love himself.

So what kind of throws would they ask Jordan Love to make, and how tough is this offense on a beginning quarterback in the NFL? Well, first, we’ll look at how deep the throws that Aaron Rodgers made last year were. Out of 41 quarterbacks last season, Rodgers ranked 20th, almost exactly in the middle, in average intended air yards at 8.1. This means that his average throw was eight yards downfield, and while there were plenty of guys who made much shorter throws on average like Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Brees, there were almost just as many guys airing it out more like Tom Brady and Baker Mayfield. His aggressiveness rating, how often he threw into tight coverage, was second-lowest in the league.

This would suggest that asking Love to step in and run this offense would be a tough transition, of course, but manageable because they’re not asking him to anything crazy or sling it around the field deep. However, when Rodgers did throw it deep, he was one of the best in the league at it. His passing grid on Next Gen Stats shows just how good he was. He was above league average on deep throws to the left, middle, and right, but what’s even more impressive is how far above average he was down the middle and to the right. In those two areas, the league average passer ratings are 86.1 and 78.3, respectively, and Rodgers’ numbers were an astounding 132.2 and 134.3. So, while Rodgers didn’t always go long, in the times he did choose, he was absolutely lethal.

An encouraging sign for the ease of a transition is the amount of passes the Packers throw around the line of scrimmage. Screens and quick passes on RPOs, and short dump-off routes to the tight end on play-action are all staples of the Matt Lafleur offense, and it shows heavily in Rodgers’ throwing heat map from 2020.