Packers: By Process of Elimination, 1st Pick will be One of these Players

We made it, friends! The 2021 NFL Draft is tonight, and I have set out to do the impossible, trying to figure out who Brian Gutekunst and the Green Bay Packers will take in the first round.

I started by compiling the top-50 prospects from The Draft Network and Pro Football Focus big boards — I didn’t want to miss anybody — and from there, through a process of elimination using recent draft trends and some educated guessing, I have my pool of players that I think the Packers will be picking from.

Now, my goal with this was to try to get this list down to a reasonable amount around 10 players — which was a lot more difficult to do than what I originally anticipated — and given the draft trends and guidelines that I chose to follow, that unfortunately meant that I had to leave some players off that I really like.

But as I said, I wanted to provide you with a shortlist, not every option under the sun.

So with that out of the way, let’s not waste any more time — the draft is just a few hours away after all — and we need to whittle this list down to a reasonable amount.

Eliminating the non-premier positions

Since the 2005 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers have combined to take just one player who was either a receiver, linebacker, interior offensive lineman, tight end, or fullback during that span. And for this year’s draft, I’ll also be lumping in quarterback with that group as well, for obvious reasons.

So anyone who is in the top-50 and plays one of those positions was eliminated–well, almost everybody.

There has been a lot of smoke recently surrounding Rashaod Bateman to the Green Bay Packers — just as there was with Jordan Love a year ago — and I do truly feel that if they are going to go against the grain for somebody, it will be him. Bateman is a very well-versed route runner who can win in all parts of the field, and if fans want an immediate impact player, then he’s your guy.

So with that in mind, here is which players remained:

Eric Stokes, Jalen Mayfield, Liam Eichenberg, Levi Onwuzurike, Carlos Basham, Dillon Radunz, Joseph Ossai, Asante Samuel Jr, Tyson Campbell, Alex Leatherwood, Samuel Cosmi, Jayson Oweh, Gregory Rousseau, Christian Barmore, Jevon Holland, Rashod Bateman, Greg Newsome II, Trevon Moehrig, Teven Jenkins, Joe Tryon, Elijah Molden, Richie Grant, Jamar Johnson, Ronnie Perkins, Jackson Carman, Azeez Ojulari, Jaelan Phillips, Caleb Farley, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Christian Darrisaw, Kwity Paye, Jaycee Horn, Patrick Surtain II, Rashawn Slater, and Penei Sewell. 

Players who won’t be in range for the Green Bay Packers

Now, I hate being the “he won’t be there” guy, but to help cross some names off of the list, I have to do that. So what I consider to be the Packers range is from pick 21 and on.

One player I went back and forth on was Chrisitan Barmore; given the state of the IDL position in this year’s draft, I could see him being a top-20 selection. But if he’s not, I won’t be surprised either–so I will keep him in the pool to be safe. Here is which players are left at this point:

Eric Stokes, Jalen Mayfield, Liam Eichenberg, Levi Onwuzurike, Carlos Basham, Dillon Radunz, Joseph Ossai, Asante Samuel Jr, Tyson Campbell, Alex Leatherwood, Samuel Cosmi, Jayson Oweh, Gregory Rousseau, Christian Barmore, Jevon Holland, Rashod Bateman, Greg Newsome II, Trevon Moehrig, Teven Jenkins, Joe Tryon, Elijah Molden, Richie Grant, Jamar Johnson, Ronnie Perkins, Jackson Carman, Azeez Ojulari, and Caleb Farley.

Difficult to envision these players taken in Round 1

Using multiple top-50 big boards, naturally, there are going to be some players that sneak in who are very unlikely to be first-round picks. Of the eliminating factors that I’m using, this one has the most guesswork involved—so fingers crossed that I’m right.

With that said, I don’t see Elijah Molden, Richie Grant, Jamar Johnson, Ronnie Perkins, Jackson Carman, Joseph Ossai, or Levi Onwuzurike being on the Green Bay Packers’ board in Round 1.

Now that leaves us with:

Eric Stokes, Jalen Mayfield, Liam Eichenberg, Carlos Basham, Dillon Radunz, Asante Samuel Jr, Tyson Campbell, Alex Leatherwood, Samuel Cosmi, Jayson Oweh, Gregory Rousseau, Christian Barmore, Jevon Holland, Rashod Bateman, Greg Newsome II, Trevon Moehrig, Teven Jenkins, Joe Tryon, Azeez Ojulari, and Caleb Farley.

Must have a RAS of 8.0 or higher

For those unfamiliar, Relative Athletic Score (RAS) is a way to compare the athleticism of prospects at their respective positions based on the measurements and testing from their Pro-Days. In Gutey’s three years as GM, 22 of his 25 RAS eligible draft picks have a score of 8.0 or higher.

That is just too strong of a connection for me to ignore, so any remaining prospects who don’t have a RAS of 8.0 or higher will be crossed off the list:

Note: Caleb Farley did not record a RAS, but I have zero questions about his athleticism. 

Eric Stokes, Liam Eichenberg, Carlos Basham, Dillon Radunz, Alex Leatherwood, Samuel Cosmi, Jayson Oweh, Christian Barmore, Jevon Holland, Rashod Bateman, Greg Newsome II, Teven Jenkins, Joe Tryon, Azeez Ojulari, and Caleb Farley.

Injury Red Flags

If you follow my work, then you know that I believe that landing Caleb Farley in Round 1 is the best-case scenario for the Green Bay Packers–assuming the medical staff clears him. However, when it comes to injuries, the Packers are a very conservative organization, and as much as I like the idea of landing Farley, I’m not so sure that they will be willing to take that risk.

The same goes for Azeez Ojulari, whose knee has reportedly been flagged by some teams and could result in him falling down draft boards.

Newsome is also someone with an injury history, however, the distinction here is that there isn’t anything ongoing or anything that has been flagged — that we know of — so I’m not going to include him in this group. But I will remove the other two from the player pool:

Eric Stokes, Liam Eichenberg, Carlos Basham, Dillon Radunz, Alex Leatherwood, Samuel Cosmi, Jayson Oweh, Christian Barmore, Jevon Holland, Rashod Bateman, Greg Newsome II, Teven Jenkins, Joe Tryon.

Honestly, at this point, and with the group of players that are here, I am completely fine submitting this as my final answer. However, there is one more way in which we can try to whittle this group down even further.

Prospects Age

Andy Herman of Packer Report found an interesting stat when it comes to recent drafts under the Green Bay Packers. Since taking Kenny Clark in 2016, all six of the Packers selections at pick 33 or higher have 21 years old or younger.

Now, I’m going to be a little more lenient because several of the prospects who are 22 just turned 22 within the last few months. It’s not as if they will be 23 the day after the draft. This eliminates a few more players:

Eric Stokes, Alex Leatherwood, Samuel Cosmi, Jayson Oweh, Christian Barmore, Jevon Holland, Rashod Bateman, Greg Newsome II, Joe Tryon.

Well, there you have it. Not an exact science by any means, but through some reasoning, we were able to get the list of players down to nine, which was my goal. If I had to make a prediction as to which of these players the Green Bay Packers will draft, my guess is that they trade up for Greg Newsome.

Now we just wait and see how it all unfolds.