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Milwaukee Brewers: 2021 Win Projections for the Crew

By Harrison Carter

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 01: Brandon Woodruff #53 of the Milwaukee Brewers reacts towards the home plate umpire as he leaves the game after a double from Mookie Betts #50 of the Los Angeles Dodgers, to take a 3-0 lead, during the fifth inning in game two of the National League Wild Card Series at Dodger Stadium on October 01, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 01: Brandon Woodruff #53 of the Milwaukee Brewers reacts towards the home plate umpire as he leaves the game after a double from Mookie Betts #50 of the Los Angeles Dodgers, to take a 3-0 lead, during the fifth inning in game two of the National League Wild Card Series at Dodger Stadium on October 01, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /
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With the 2021 Milwaukee Brewers season on the horizon, it is that time of year when we start to hope for an exciting run from the Crew. As the Brewers attempt to make the postseason for the fourth year in a row, two popular projection models from Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus having varying degrees of success for Milwaukee this season.

Let’s take a look at how each of these projections have the Brewers faring in 2021 and what it means.

Fangraphs

This Milwaukee Brewers roster is constructed much differently than what it typically is. Rather than lots of power bats and home runs, the Brewers this year will focus on getting on base, pitching, and defense. For example, Fangraphs expects that 10 Brewers players will have an on-base percentage (OBP) higher than the league average OBP from last year of .322.

Fangraphs also predicts that Brewers pitching will have the 11th highest wins above replacement (WAR) in the entire league and 5th in the NL. So despite projecting that the Brewers will score the second-fewest amount of runs per game in the NL Central, they still give the Brewers a division best 33.6% chance of winning the NL Central with a horrid projected win total of 79.

Obviously, Fangraphs doesn’t think very highly of the NL Central this season.

PECOTA Projections

The PECOTA projections run by Baseball Prospectus have the Milwaukee Brewers winning the NL Central as well, but with a much more favorable 89 wins and a 54.1% chance of winning the division. The main reason for this is the Brewers’ pitching projections.

PECOTA predicts that Brewers’ pitching will tally 19.9 WAR, which will be good for 6th in the entire MLB. The key for this projection is Brandon Woodruff, who PECOTA projects will finish the season with a 2.92 ERA in 151 innings pitched with 179 strikeouts.

PECOTA is also much friendlier to Brewers hitting than Fangraphs. PECOTA believes that the Brewers will be an average hitting club, and they expect Brewers hitters to put up 18.3 WAR, essentially tied with the Cardinals and Giants for 15th in the league.

Conclusion

Projections are fun. It is exciting to see how different models expect different components of the team to perform. They also give you a good idea of what type of team to expect.

If you want to watch a team that will bash a lot of home runs, the Brewers will most likely not be that team. The signing of Kolten Wong reflects this year’s Brewers team well. The Brewers have turned their focus to playing quality defense as they move Keston Hiura, who has already had his share of struggles defensively at second base, over to first base and replace him with Wong, arguably one of the best defenders in baseball.

This Brewers team will live and die by its pitching staff. If the pitching cannot hold its own, it will be difficult to see how this team will consistently put up a lot of runs to overcome any poor outings from their starters.

On a positive note, all projections expect Brewers slugger Christian Yelich to have a major bounce-back year. Baseball-Reference even predicts Yelich will have a 0.947 OPS, good for fourth-best in MLB. If Yelich returns back to form, it will be a big jolt to an offense in need of a boost.

My projection for the Milwaukee Brewers win total this year is in between Fangraphs and PECOTA’s predictions. I believe the Brewers’ defense and pitching will propel the Crew to 84 wins and an NL Central title.

The most noticeable difference to the team this year will be the improved defense. The addition of Wong and the return of Lorenzo Cain will be huge boosts to the defense and should greatly help the pitching.

What do you think of these projections? How many wins do you think the Brewers will have this year?

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